Holocene carbon emissions as a result of anthropogenic land cover change
Holocene carbon emissions as a result of anthropogenic land cover change
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DOI：
10.1177/0959683610386983
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发表时间：
2011-08-01
期刊：
影响因子：
2.4
通讯作者：
Goldewijk, Kees Klein
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kaplan, Jed O.;Krumhardt, Kristen M.;Goldewijk, Kees Klein
自旧石器时代以来，人类主要通过清除木本植物来改善狩猎和采集机会，后来又提供农业耕地，从而改变了地球表面。在全新世，农业在几乎所有的大陆上建立起来，并导致陆地生态系统的广泛改变。为了量化人类在全新世全球碳循环中扮演的角色，我们开发了一份新的、每年一次的人类土地覆盖变化清单，从8000年前到大规模工业化开始(公元1850年)。这份清单是基于几个欧洲国家在前工业化时期观察到的人口和土地使用之间的简单关系。使用这个数据集，以及基于海德3.1土地利用数据库的另一个场景，我们在一系列连续的模拟中强制使用LPJ动态全球植被模型来评估前工业化全新世期间人类对陆地碳储存的影响。我们的模型设置使我们能够量化重复使用土地并随后放弃所造成的土地退化的重要性。到3ka BP时，在我们的新情景中，人为土地覆盖变化造成的累计碳排放量在84至102pg之间，相当于大气二氧化碳的约7ppm。到公元1850年，新方案的排放量为325-357加仑，而海德驾驶时的排放量为137-189加仑。导致当地排放或吸收碳的地区性事件往往被世界其他地区的对比模式所平衡。虽然我们不能在目前的研究中关闭碳收支，但模拟的前工业化全新世的人为累计排放量与大气三角洲13CO2的冰芯记录一致，并支持这样的假设，即人类活动导致大气CO2浓度稳定在使世界显著变暖的水平。
Humans have altered the Earth's land surface since the Paleolithic mainly by clearing woody vegetation first to improve hunting and gathering opportunities, and later to provide agricultural cropland. In the Holocene, agriculture was established on nearly all continents and led to widespread modification of terrestrial ecosystems. To quantify the role that humans played in the global carbon cycle over the Holocene, we developed a new, annually resolved inventory of anthropogenic land cover change from 8000 years ago to the beginning of large-scale industrialization (ad 1850). This inventory is based on a simple relationship between population and land use observed in several European countries over preindustrial time. Using this data set, and an alternative scenario based on the HYDE 3.1 land use data base, we forced the LPJ dynamic global vegetation model in a series of continuous simulations to evaluate the impacts of humans on terrestrial carbon storage during the preindustrial Holocene. Our model setup allowed us to quantify the importance of land degradation caused by repeated episodes of land use followed by abandonment. By 3 ka BP, cumulative carbon emissions caused by anthropogenic land cover change in our new scenario ranged between 84 and 102 Pg, translating to c. 7 ppm of atmospheric CO2. By ad 1850, emissions were 325-357 Pg in the new scenario, in contrast to 137-189 Pg when driven by HYDE. Regional events that resulted in local emissions or uptake of carbon were often balanced by contrasting patterns in other parts of the world. While we cannot close the carbon budget in the current study, simulated cumulative anthropogenic emissions over the preindustrial Holocene are consistent with the ice core record of atmospheric delta 13CO2 and support the hypothesis that anthropogenic activities led to the stabilization of atmospheric CO2 concentrations at a level that made the world substantially warmer than it otherwise would be.