Climatic and socioeconomic controls of future coastal flood risk in Europe
Climatic and socioeconomic controls of future coastal flood risk in Europe
复制标题
DOI：
10.1038/s41558-018-0260-4
复制
发表时间：
2018-09-01
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
Feyen, Luc
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Vousdoukas, Michalis, I;Mentaschi, Lorenzo;Feyen, Luc
极端海平面的上升和沿海地区社会经济的持续发展将导致欧洲海岸线未来洪水风险的增加。我们对欧洲未来的沿海洪水风险(CFR)进行了全面分析，将全球变暖的影响与社会经济发展分开。在缺乏对海岸适应的进一步投资的情况下，到本世纪末，目前预计的12.5亿年损害预计将增加两到三个数量级，范围在930亿到9610亿之间。目前预计每年遭受沿海洪灾的人数为102,000人，预计到本世纪末将达到152万至365万人。气候变化是未来沿海洪灾损失上升的主要驱动力，沿海移民、城市化和资产价值迅速上升的重要性随着时间的推移而下降。为了保持未来沿海洪灾损失相对于经济规模的恒定，需要安装或加固防洪结构，以承受0.5至2.5米范围内的紧急水位的增加。
Rising extreme sea levels (ESLs) and continued socioeconomic development in coastal zones will lead to increasing future flood risk along the European coastline. We present a comprehensive analysis of future coastal flood risk (CFR) for Europe that separates the impacts of global warming and socioeconomic development. In the absence of further investments in coastal adaptation, the present expected annual damage (EAD) of (sic)1.25 billion is projected to increase by two to three orders of magnitude by the end of the century, ranging between 93 and (sic) 961 billion. The current expected annual number of people exposed (EAPE) to coastal flooding of 102,000 is projected to reach 1.52-3.65 million by the end of the century. Climate change is the main driver of the future rise in coastal flood losses, with the importance of coastward migration, urbanization and rising asset values rapidly declining with time. To keep future coastal flood losses constant relative to the size of the economy, flood defence structures need to be installed or reinforced to withstand increases in ESLs that range from 0.5 to 2.5 m.