The response of high-impact blocking weather systems to climate change
The response of high-impact blocking weather systems to climate change
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DOI：
10.1002/2016gl069725
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发表时间：
2016-07-16
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Shaffrey, Len
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kennedy, Daniel;Parker, Tess;Shaffrey, Len
中纬度天气和气候主要由急流和相关的向东移动的风暴系统主导。然而，有时它们会被称为阻塞的持续反气旋机制阻断。气候模型通常预测，在人为气候变化下，阻塞频率将略有下降。然而，除了其他因素外，人们对这些预测的信心受到了破坏，原因之一是缺乏对这种变化背后的物理机制的理解。在这里，我们通过一系列敏感性实验来分析阻塞(主要在欧洲-大西洋地区)，以确定地表全球变暖模式的不同部分的影响。我们还分析了阻塞影响的预测变化，例如极端温度。结果表明，热带和北极地区变暖加剧，加剧了预计的阻塞下降。热带变化对预测阻塞变化的不确定性更为重要，尽管北极也影响阻塞期间的温度异常。
Midlatitude weather and climate are dominated by the jet streams and associated eastward moving storm systems. Occasionally, however, these are blocked by persistent anticyclonic regimes known as blocking. Climate models generally predict a small decline in blocking frequency under anthropogenic climate change. However, confidence in these predictions is undermined by, among other things, a lack of understanding of the physical mechanisms underlying the change. Here we analyze blocking (mostly in the Euro-Atlantic sector) in a set of sensitivity experiments to determine the effect of different parts of the surface global warming pattern. We also analyze projected changes in the impacts of blocking such as temperature extremes. The results show that enhanced warming both in the tropics and over the Arctic act to strengthen the projected decline in blocking. The tropical changes are more important for the uncertainty in projected blocking changes, though the Arctic also affects the temperature anomalies during blocking.