Migration, Unemployment and Developmnent: A Two-Sector Analysis
Migration, Unemployment and Developmnent: A Two-Sector Analysis
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发表时间：
2007
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通讯作者：
John R. Harris;M. Todaro
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作者：
John R. Harris;M. Todaro
在世界上许多欠发达的经济体，特别是热带非洲的经济体，目前正在发生一种奇怪的经济现象。尽管农业存在正的边际产品，城市失业率很高，但农村向城市的劳动力迁移不仅继续存在，而且似乎正在加速。传统的经济学模型只依赖于通过适当的工资和价格调整来实现充分就业均衡，在整个经济中没有绝对的劳动力冗余的情况下，很难为这些规模庞大且不断增长的城市失业水平提供合理的行为解释。此外，由于缺乏适当的分析模型来解释失业现象，往往导致相当不明确的现象，例如城市的“明亮灯光”就像一块磁铁，吸引农民进入城市地区。在本文中，我们将偏离通常的充分就业，灵活的工资价格模型的经济分析，制定一个两部门模型的农村-城市移民，其中，除其他外，承认存在一个政治决定的最低城市工资水平大大高于农业收入。“然后，我们将考虑这个参数城市工资对农村个人经济行为的影响，假设没有农业劳动力剩余，即，农业边际产品总是与农村劳动力的规模成正相关和负相关。2这一模型的显著特征是，人口迁移是对城乡预期收入差异的反应（定义见下文），城市就业率作为这种迁移的平衡力。3然后，我们将使用总体模型用于以下目的：（1）证明，鉴于这一点-
Throughout mnany less developed economies of the world, especially those of tropical Africa, a curious economic phenomenon is presently taking place. Despite the existence of positive marginal products in agriculture and significant levels of urban unemployment, rural-urban labor migration not only continues to exist, but indeed, appears to be accelerating. Conventional economic models with their singular depeindence on the achievement of a full employment equilibrium through appropriate wage and price adjustments are hard put to provide rational behavioral explanations for these sizable and growing levels of urban unemployment in the absence of absolute labor redundancy in the economy as a whole. Moreover, this lack of an adequate analytical model to account for the unemployment phenomenon often leads to rather amorphous explaniations such as the "bright lights" of the city acting as a magnet to lure peasants into urban areas. In this paper we shall diverge from the usual full employment, flexible wage-price models of economic analysis by formulating a two-sector model of rural-urban migration which, among other things, recognizes the existence of a politically determined minimum urban wage at levels substantially higher than agricultural earnings.' We shall then consider the effect of this parametric urban wage on the rural individual's economic behavior when the assumption of no agricultural labor surplus is made, i.e., that the agricultural marginal product is always positive and inversely related to the size of the rural labor force.2 The distinguishing feature of this model is that migration proceeds in response to urban-rural differences in expected earnings (defined below) with the urban employment rate acting as an equilibrating force on such migration.3 We shall then use the overall model for the following purposes: 1) to demonstrate that given this po-