A Hand-Foot-and-Mouth Disease Model with Periodic Transmission Rate in Wenzhou, China
A Hand-Foot-and-Mouth Disease Model with Periodic Transmission Rate in Wenzhou, China
复制标题
中国温州周期性传播的手足口病模型
DOI：
10.1155/2014/234509
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发表时间：
2014-01-01
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Wang, Weiming
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Zhu, Yeting;Xu, Boyang;Wang, Weiming
建立具有周期性传播率的SEIQRS流行模型，调查温州市季节性手足口病的流行情况。本研究的价值在于两个方面。在数学上，我们表明手足口病模型的全局动力学可以由其再现数控制；如果，模型的无病平衡点是全局渐近稳定的，这意味着疾病将在一段时间后消失；而如果，模型至少有一个正周期解，且均匀持续，表明手足口病成为地方病。流行病学方面，根据温州市手足口病的统计数据，发现手足口病已成为一种地方病，并将在温州市暴发。其中一个最有趣的发现是，为了控制手足口病的传播，我们必须提高隔离率或缩短治疗周期。
We establish an SEIQRS epidemic model with periodic transmission rate to investigate the spread of seasonal HFMD in Wenzhou. The value of this study lies in two aspects. Mathematically, we show that the global dynamics of the HFMD model can be governed by its reproduction number ; if , the disease-free equilibrium of the model is globally asymptotically stable, which means that the disease will vanish after some period of time; while if , the model has at least one positive periodic solution and is uniformly persistent, which indicates that HFMD becomes an endemic disease. Epidemiologically, based on the statistical data of HFMD in Wenzhou, we find that the HFMD becomes an endemic disease and will break out in Wenzhou. One of the most interesting findings is that, for controlling the HFMD spread, we must increase the quarantined rate or decrease the treatment cycle.