Current status of HBV vaccine escape variants - a mathematical model of their epidemiology
Current status of HBV vaccine escape variants - a mathematical model of their epidemiology
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DOI：
10.1046/j.1365-2893.1998.0050s2025.x
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发表时间：
1998-11-01
影响因子：
2.5
通讯作者：
Carman, WF
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Wilson, JN;Nokes, DJ;Carman, WF
我们提出了一个可能出现疫苗逃逸变异的乙肝病毒(乙肝病毒)的确定性模型。该模型确定了决定这一过程的关键未知因素：当前疫苗对特定乙肝病毒变异株提供的保护；这些变异株的传染性；以及当前感染变异株的个体的流行率(每个因素都与野生型有关)。通过对这些未知因素的悲观假设，我们表明，即使是一个高传染性的变种，在一个没有针对变种提供保护的疫苗计划下，也需要几十年的时间才能出现。因此，目前变种的低流行率并不是当前疫苗的交叉反应性或变种缺乏传染性的证据。由于任何疫苗的失败都将在几十年内看不见，现在建议修改疫苗可能是明智的，而不是以后。
We present a deterministic model of the possible emergence of a vaccine escape variant of hepatitis B virus (HBV). The model identifies the key unknowns determining this process: the protection afforded by she current vaccines against particular HBV variants; the infectiousness of these variants; and the current prevalence of individuals infectious with the variants (each factor relative to wild-type). By malting pessimistic assumptions about these unknowns we show that even a highly infectious variant, under a vaccine programme that affords no protection against the variant, would still take decades to emerge. Thus the current low prevalence of variants is not evidence for the cross-reactivity of the current vaccines or for a lack of infectiousness in the variants. As any vaccine failure will be inapparent for decades it may be sensible to recommend vaccine modifications now rather than later.