Natural and anthropogenic modes of surface temperature variations in the last thousand years
Natural and anthropogenic modes of surface temperature variations in the last thousand years
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DOI：
10.1029/2004gl021563
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发表时间：
2005-04
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
E. Zorita;J. González-Rouco;H. Storch;J. Montávez;F. Valero
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
E. Zorita;J. González-Rouco;H. Storch;J. Montávez;F. Valero
利用ECHO-G海气耦合模式模拟了1000 ~ 2100年中国近50年来地面气温变化的空间分布特征。该模型由太阳、火山和温室气体强迫驱动。前工业化时期气温变率的主导模态代表了几乎全球一致的气温变化，在大陆和北方半球具有较大的振幅。这种模式也描述了21世纪世纪模拟的变暖的很大一部分空间结构。然而，在21世纪，区域偏离这种空间结构也存在，可以归因于大气环流的人为强迫在21世纪的最后几十年的反应。
The spatial patterns of surface air‐temperature variations in the period 1000 to 2100, simulated with the ECHO‐G atmosphere‐ocean coupled model, are analyzed. The model was driven by solar, volcanic and greenhouse gas forcing. The leading mode of temperature variability in the preindustrial period represents an almost global coherent variation of temperatures, with larger amplitudes over the continents and Northern Hemisphere. This mode also describes a large part of the spatial structure of the warming simulated in the 21st century. However, in the 21st century, regional departures from this spatial structure are also present and can be ascribed to atmospheric circulation responses to anthropogenic forcing in the last decades of the 21st century.