Crash risk assessment using intelligent transportation systems data and real-time intervention strategies to improve safety on freeways
Crash risk assessment using intelligent transportation systems data and real-time intervention strategies to improve safety on freeways
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DOI：
10.1080/15472450701410395
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发表时间：
2007-01-01
影响因子：
3.6
通讯作者：
Dos Santos, Cristina
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Abdel-Aty, Mohamed;Pande, Anurag;Dos Santos, Cristina
本文对高速公路实时交通安全改善的新思想进行了全面的概述。利用环形探测器数据识别高速公路主线和匝道上的易发生碰撞的条件，然后提出实时降低碰撞风险的智能交通系统（ITS）策略。估计了用于评估两种速度制度下发生碰撞风险的单独逻辑回归模型。结果表明，两个模型中的变量是一致的，在各自的制度（高，中，低速）的碰撞可能的机制。本研究还讨论了影响碰撞发生的高速公路匝道类型（上/下匝道）和配置（菱形，环路等）的参数和条件的分析。使用从匝道上游和下游的环形检测器获得的五分钟交通流量数据，以反映碰撞发生前的实际交通状况。最后，几种交通管理策略进行了评估，从而提高交通安全的实时使用PARAMICS微观交通模拟和措施的碰撞潜力，通过逻辑回归模型确定。结果表明，可变限速策略降低了中高速条件下的碰撞可能性，而匝道调节策略则有效降低了低速条件下的碰撞可能性。
This article provides a comprehensive overview of the novel idea of real-time traffic safety improvement on freeways. Crash prone conditions on the freeway mainline and ramps were identified using loop detector data, then intelligent transportation systems (ITS) strategies to reduce the crash risk in real-time are proposed. Separate logistic regression models for assessing the risk of crashes occurring under two speed regimes were estimated. The results show that the variables in the two models are consistent with probable mechanisms of crashes under the respective regimes (high-to-moderate and low speed). This study also discusses the analysis of parameters and conditions that affect crash occurrence on freeway ramps by type (on-/off-ramp) and configurations (diamond, loop, etc.) using five-minute traffic flow data obtained from the loop detectors upstream and downstream of ramps to reflect actual traffic conditions prior to the time of crashes. Finally, several traffic management strategies are evaluated for the resulting traffic safety improvement in real-time using PARAMICS microscopic traffic simulation and the measures of crash potential determined through the logistic regression models. The results show that, while variable speed limit strategies reduced the crash potential under moderate-to-high speed conditions, ramp metering strategies were effective in reducing the crash potential during the low-speed conditions.