Estimation of the effects of climate change on flood-triggered economic losses in Japan
Estimation of the effects of climate change on flood-triggered economic losses in Japan
复制标题
气候变化对日本洪水引发的经济损失的影响估计
DOI：
10.1016/j.ijdrr.2014.03.004
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发表时间：
2013
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
R. Sarukkalige
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Shoya Tezuka;H. Takiguchi;S. Kazama;A. Sato;Seiki Kawagoe;R. Sarukkalige
这项研究评估了气候变化对日本洪水相关损失造成的经济损失的影响。三个选定的GCM气候数据进行了降尺度使用的分析方法，使用观测到的降水数据作为参考分辨率。降尺度的气候数据被用来估计不同重现期的极端降雨量。极端降雨量的估计，然后进入一个二维（2D）非均匀流模型估计洪水淹没信息。基于土地利用类型的洪泛区的技术被用来估计由于洪水灾害的经济损失。降雨量分析的结果表明，目前（2000年），南海地区、和歌山县至鹿儿岛县的地区以及日本阿尔卑斯山脉的山区，极端降雨量非常高。到2050年，除了这些地区，东海和越越地区的降雨量将比现在大1. 2至1. 3倍。总体变化表明，在所有重现期，SRES-B1、A2和A1 B情景的潜在经济损失更大。这些结果清楚地表明，由于气候变化，日本与洪水有关的经济损失将在未来大幅增加。这表明日本今后需要加大资金投入以实施防洪减灾措施。由于本研究以非常精细的分辨率（1 km×1 km）呈现了综合结果，因此本研究的结果对于区域尺度的决策过程更为重要，这将有助于公众、经济学家以及政策制定者规划和设计防洪措施。
This study evaluates the effects of climate change on economic losses due to flood-related damage in Japan. Three selected GCM climate data were downscaled using an analytical method that uses observed precipitation data as the reference resolution. The downscaled climate data were used to estimate extreme rainfall for different return periods. The extreme rainfall estimates were then entered into a two-dimensional (2D) non-uniform flow model to estimate flood inundation information. A technique based on the land use type of the flood area was employed to estimate economic losses due to flood damages. The results of the rainfall analysis show that at present (in 2000), the Nankai region, and the area from Wakayama Prefecture to Kagoshima Prefecture and the mountains of the Japan Alps receive very high extreme rainfall. By 2050, in addition to these areas, the rainfall in the Tokai and Koshinetsu regions will be 1.2 to 1.3 times greater than at present. The overall variations show that the potential economic loss is greater for the SRES-B1, A2 and A1B scenarios for all return periods. These results clearly show that flood-related economic losses in Japan will increase significantly in the future as a result of climate change. It indicates that Japan needs to increase the capital investment to implement flood control and mitigation measures in the future. As this study presents comprehensive results in very fine resolution (1 km×1 km), the outcome of this study is more important for regional scale decision making processes will be useful to the public, economists, and policy and decision makers in planning and designing flood control measures.
影响因子：
6.7
作者：
Yoshikawa;N.;Nagao;N.;Misawa;S.
通讯作者：
S.