Nonstationarity-based evaluation of flood risk in the Pearl River basin: changing patterns, causes and implications
Nonstationarity-based evaluation of flood risk in the Pearl River basin: changing patterns, causes and implications
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DOI：
10.1080/02626667.2016.1183774
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发表时间：
2017-01
影响因子：
3.5
通讯作者：
Xihui Gu;Qiang Zhang;V. Singh;Mingzhong Xiao;Ji Cheng
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Xihui Gu;Qiang Zhang;V. Singh;Mingzhong Xiao;Ji Cheng
摘要建立了以时间为协变量的非平稳GEV-CDN模型，用于评估珠江流域主要防洪基础设施的洪水风险和失效风险。结果表明：(1)西河和北河干流洪峰流量呈上升趋势，东河干流洪峰流量呈下降趋势；特别是在珠江下游干流和珠江流域人口最密集的珠江三角洲地区，洪峰流量呈上升趋势；(2)在平稳性和非平稳性假设下，重现期的差异主要出现在重现期大于50年的洪水上；(3)基于失稳风险分析的防洪基础设施失稳风险在非平稳假设下高于平稳假设下。珠江中下游地区的防洪基础设施在气候变化和人类活动的影响下具有较高的洪水和破坏风险。副主编G. Thirel
ABSTRACT Nonstationary GEV-CDN models considering time as a covariate are built for evaluating the flood risk and failure risk of the major flood-control infrastructure in the Pearl River basin, China. The results indicate: (1) increasing peak flood flow is observed in the mainstream of the West River and North River basins and decreasing peak flood flow is observed in the East River basin; in particular, increasing peak flood flow is detected in the mainstream of the lower Pearl River basin and also in the Pearl River Delta region, the most densely populated region of the Pearl River basin; (2) differences in return periods analysed under stationarity and nonstationarity assumptions are found mainly for floods with return periods longer than 50 years; and (3) the failure risks of flood-control infrastructure based on failure risk analysis are higher under the nonstationarity assumption than under the stationarity assumption. The flood-control infrastructure is at higher risk of flood and failure under the influence of climate change and human activities in the middle and lower parts of Pearl River basin. EDITOR D. Koutsoyiannis ASSOCIATE EDITOR G. Thirel