Poleward shifts in winter ranges of North American birds
Poleward shifts in winter ranges of North American birds
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DOI：
10.1890/06-1072.1
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发表时间：
2007-07-01
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Thompson, Frank R., III
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
La Sorte, Frank A.;Thompson, Frank R., III
气候变化被认为促进了地理范围的向极移动;然而，与这些趋势相关的空间动态、机制和区域人为驱动因素尚未得到充分探讨。我们估计的纬度变化的北方范围的边界，发生中心和中心的丰富度为254种冬季鸟类在北美1975年至2004年。在考虑了范围大小和北方边界位置的影响后，北方边界（1.48公里/年）、发生中心（0.45公里/年）和丰度中心（1.03公里/年）的正纬度趋势是明显的。北方边界，当检查跨个别物种，有最可变的趋势（SD = 7.46公里/年）相对于中心的发生（SD = 2.36公里/年）和中心的丰度（SD = 5.57公里/年）。趋势没有不同的迁徙状态的基础上，但有证据表明，趋势不同的物种范围集中在南部与北方部分的研究区域。随着时间的推移，在北方范围的边界，和北方边界与殖民化和灭绝事件的浓度，更大的殖民化事件的发生率可能促进向极的趋势。区域人为驱动因素对北方边界趋势的解释类似于8%，对发生中心的解释类似于14%，对丰度中心的解释类似于18%：然而，这些影响局限于物种分布范围的北方部分，并与分布范围内的变化相关，主要是丰度，产生模仿向极运动的模式。我们的结论是，向极分布的变化代表了气候变化和区域因素之间的相互作用，其结果是由分析的规模和该地区的生物和非生物特征，以及人类活动如何影响这些功能。
Climate change is thought to promote the poleward movement of geographic ranges; however, the spatial dynamics, mechanisms, and regional anthropogenic drivers associated with these trends have not been fully explored. We estimated changes in latitude of northern range boundaries, center of occurrence, and center of abundance for 254 species of winter avifauna in North America from 1975 to 2004. After accounting for the effect of range size and the location of the northern boundary, positive latitudinal trends were evident for the northern boundary (1.48 km/yr), center of occurrence (0.45 km/yr), and center of abundance (1.03 km/yr). The northern boundary, when examined across individual species, had the most variable trends (SD = 7.46 km/yr) relative to the center of occurrence (SD = 2.36 km/yr) and center of abundance (SD = 5.57 km/yr). Trends did not differ based on migratory status, but there was evidence that trends differed for species with ranges centered in the southern vs. northern portion of the study area. Species occurred more sporadically over time at northern range boundaries, and northern boundaries were associated with a concentration of colonization and extirpation events, with a greater prevalence of colonization events likely promoting poleward trends. Regional anthropogenic drivers explained similar to 8% of the trend for the northern boundary, 14% for the center of occurrence, and 18% for the center of abundance: however, these effects were localized in the northern portion of species' ranges and were associated with distributional changes within ranges, primarily abundance, producing patterns that mimicked poleward movements. We conclude that poleward distributional shifts represent the interaction between climate change and regional factors whose outcome is determined by the scale of the analysis and the biotic and abiotic features in the region, and how anthropogenic activities have impacted these features.