Forecasting network-wide multi-step metro ridership with an attention-weighted multi-view graph to sequence learning approach
Forecasting network-wide multi-step metro ridership with an attention-weighted multi-view graph to sequence learning approach
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DOI：
10.1016/j.eswa.2022.118475
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发表时间：
2022
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Xinyuan Chen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Jie Bao;Jiawei Kang;Zhao Yang;Xinyuan Chen
• A multi-view graph to sequence learning method is built to predict metro ridership. • The AW-MV-G2S model can uncover spatiotemporal dependencies between stations. • Three different types of adjacency matrixes are designed in the developed model. • The developed AW-MV-G2S model shows great transferability in other metro system. • The developed AW-MV-G2S model outperforms some state-of-the-art benchmark models. The primary objective of this study is to forecast network-wide multi-step metro ridership with a novel attention-weighted multi-view graph to sequence learning approach (AW-MV-G2S). The developed AW-MV-G2S model employs multiple graph convolutional neural networks to capture spatial heterogeneous correlations between stations from geographic distance view, functional similarity view and demand pattern view, respectively. A bidirectional LSTM neural network and the attention mechanism is utilized to encode the long-range temporal dependencies in multiple time steps. A three-month trip record of 64 stations on four metro lines is collected from Nanjing Metro System to validate the model. The results indicate that the developed AW-MV-G2S model can fully encode the spatiotemporal characteristics in network-wide metro ridership data, and achieve better prediction accuracy and more robust performance than other compared models when making predictions across multiple look-ahead time steps for all three metro station types. Moreover, the model transferability result also reveals that the developed multi-view graph-to-sequence learning framework can be well transferred to other metro systems with various network structures. The results of this study can help the metro system authorities to dynamically modify the operation plans according to the fluctuation of passenger flow, such as adjusting the headway and train dispatching schedule to ensure the service quality of the entire metro system.
