Simulating the Impacts and Assessing the Vulnerability of the Central Artery/Tunnel System to Sea Level Rise and Increased Coastal Flooding
Simulating the Impacts and Assessing the Vulnerability of the Central Artery/Tunnel System to Sea Level Rise and Increased Coastal Flooding
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模拟影响并评估中央动脉/隧道系统对海平面上升和沿海洪水增加的脆弱性
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发表时间：
2016
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通讯作者：
K. McArthur
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作者：
E. Douglas;P. Kirshen;K. Bosma;Chris Watson;Steven Miller;K. McArthur
沿着公路隧道是重要的基础设施，是交通网络中对沿海洪水较为敏感的组成部分之一。就其性质而言，这些隧道的大部分位于目前的海平面以下，隧道入口和运营隧道所需的设备（如通风建筑物）可能高于或可能不高于目前的洪水阈值。美国马萨诸塞州波士顿市的中央干线/隧道（CA/T）系统是区域交通网络中的重要环节，由160多车道英里（其中一半以上为隧道）、6座互通式立交和200座桥梁组成。虽然这里没有讨论，但CA/T系统依赖于其他基础设施系统来充分发挥作用，例如电网。风暴潮数值模拟采用先进的环流模式（ADCIRC）与近岸波浪模拟模式（SWAN）耦合。选择了四个不同时间段（2013年，2030年，2070年和2100年）的SLR情景，以涵盖波士顿港地区未来海平面上升的潜在结果，并利用蒙特卡罗统计方法来估计整个波士顿港地区的洪水概率。脆弱性分析仅基于暴露，暴露定义为当处于控制CA/T原始设计的设计洪水标准阈值时CA/T系统经历的洪水。在目前的气候条件下，洪水脆弱性的程度是相当有限的，发生洪水的概率很低。然而，到了世纪后期，隧道入口和其他建筑物和构筑物发生了相当大的洪水。评估了当地的适应方案，如保护个人资产的防洪墙或保护隧道口的闸门，以及阻断主要洪水通道的区域计划。在气候变化/气候变化这样的复杂系统中，随着海平面上升和风暴强度的增加，脆弱地区的数量和空间范围会随着时间的推移而增加，这表明在短期内，地方适应可能是最适用的，而基于区域的适应（为多个利益攸关方保护多个地区）将成为更具成本效益的长期必要解决方案。首先注重地方行动也意味着保护性耕作/技术所有者在管理保护性耕作/技术适应方面较少依赖其他组织和机构，因为它将拥有任何变化所需的土地，只需要管理自己的努力。区域计划的共同好处是，它将保护该地区更多的资产，而不仅仅是CA/T，而且有可能在更多的机构和组织之间分担费用，而不仅仅是业主。
Highway tunnels along the coast are critical infrastructure and represent one of the more sensitive components of a transportation network to coastal flooding. By their very nature, large portions of these tunnels are beneath present sea level and the tunnel entrances and the equipment necessary to operate the tunnels such as vent buildings may or may not be above present flood thresholds. The Central Artery/Tunnel (CA/T) system in coastal Boston, Massachusetts USA is a vital link in the regional transportation network and is comprised of more than 160 lane-miles (more than half of them in tunnels), 6 interchanges and 200 bridges. While not examined here, the CA/T system relies upon other infrastructure systems to fully function, such as the electrical grid. The ADvanced CIRCulation model (ADCIRC) coupled with the Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN) Model was used for storm surge modeling. SLR scenarios were selected for four distinct time periods (2013, 2030, 2070, and 2100) to bracket the potential future sea level rise outcomes for the Boston Harbor area and a Monte Carlo statistical approach was utilized to estimate the probability of flooding throughout the Boston Harbor region. The vulnerability analysis was based solely upon exposure, defined as flooding experienced at CA/T systems when at the thresholds of the design flood standards that governed the original design of the CA/T. The extent of flood vulnerability under current climatic conditions is fairly limited with low exceedance probabilities. By late 21st century, however, there is considerable flooding at Tunnel Portals and other buildings and structures. Both local adaptation options such as flood walls protecting individual assets or gates protecting tunnel portals and regional plans blocking major flood pathways were evaluated. In complex systems such as the CA/T, the number and spatial extent of vulnerable areas increase over time as sea level rises and the intensity of storms increase, suggesting that local adaptations may be most applicable in the near-term and regional based adaptations (safeguarding multiple areas for multiple stakeholders) will become more cost effective and necessary solutions in the long-term. Focusing first on local actions also means that the CA/T owner is less reliant on other organizations and agencies to manage the CA/T adaptation as it will own the land necessary for any changes and will only have to manage its own efforts. The regional plan has the co-benefits that it will protect more assets in the region than just the CA/T and there is the possibility that the cost can be shared among more agencies and organizations than just the owner.