The Value of Technological Advance in Decarbonizing the U.S. Economy
The Value of Technological Advance in Decarbonizing the U.S. Economy
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技术进步对美国经济脱碳的价值
DOI：
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发表时间：
2007
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
G. Blanford
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
R. Richels;G. Blanford
本文探讨了技术在管理美国经济碳约束成本方面的作用。研究了两种技术组合。一个反映了对气候友好型技术的适度投资，另一个反映了更积极的发展。分析表明，发展广泛的低碳至零碳排放技术可以大幅降低（但不能消除）脱碳的经济成本。通过在供应方实现大规模减排，可以避免代价高昂的需求减少。特别是，电力作为低碳燃料的出现，为以更低的成本实现其他经济部门的减排提供了强大的杠杆。虽然分析表明没有“免费午餐”，但通过加速研发计划和在整个经济中成功传播新技术，可以大大减少这笔费用，这可能确实值得付出。
This paper examines the role of technology in managing the costs of a carbon constraint on the U.S. economy. Two portfolios of technology are examined. One reflects modest investments in climate-friendly technologies, the other more aggressive development. The analysis indicates that the development of a broad range of low- to zero-carbon emitting technologies can substantially reduce (but not eliminate) the economic cost of decarbonization. By enabling large-scale emission reductions on the supply-side, costly reductions in demand are avoided. In particular, the emergence of electricity as a low-carbon fuel provides a powerful lever for achieving reductions in other sectors of the economy at lower cost. While the analysis suggests that there is no "free lunch," the bill, which may indeed be well worth paying, can be greatly reduced through an accelerated R&D program and successful diffusion of new technology throughout the economy.