Can Regional Climate Modeling Capture the Observed Changes in Spatial Organization of Extreme Storms at Higher Temperatures?
Can Regional Climate Modeling Capture the Observed Changes in Spatial Organization of Extreme Storms at Higher Temperatures?
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DOI：
10.1029/2018gl077716
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发表时间：
2018-05-16
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Sharma, A.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Li, J.;Wasko, C.;Sharma, A.
极端风暴事件的空间范围和组织对洪水预报具有重要的实际意义。近年来，观测到的风暴空间范围随温度升高而变化的证据相互矛盾。为了进一步研究这个问题，区域气候模式评估提出了大悉尼地区，在澳大利亚。两个区域气候模式被认为是：第一个对流解决模拟在2公里的分辨率，第二个分辨率为10公里，三种不同的对流参数化。使用Betts-Miller-Janjic对流方案的2公里和10公里分辨率模拟了1小时持续时间降水事件随温度升高而减小的风暴空间范围，与澳大利亚基于观测的研究一致。然而，其他观测到的极端降雨与温度升高的关系并没有很好地代表的模式。需要改进考虑风暴组织的方法，以更好地了解未来潜在的变化。
The spatial extent and organization of extreme storm events has important practical implications for flood forecasting. Recently, conflicting evidence has been found on the observed changes of storm spatial extent with increasing temperatures. To further investigate this question, a regional climate model assessment is presented for the Greater Sydney region, in Australia. Two regional climate models were considered: the first a convection-resolving simulation at 2-km resolution, the second a resolution of 10 km with three different convection parameterizations. Both the 2- and the 10-km resolutions that used the Betts-Miller-Janjic convective scheme simulate decreasing storm spatial extent with increasing temperatures for 1-hr duration precipitation events, consistent with the observation-based study in Australia. However, other observed relationships of extreme rainfall with increasing temperature were not well represented by the models. Improved methods for considering storm organization are required to better understand potential future changes.