Electric vehicles, air pollution, and the motorcycle city: A stated preference survey of consumers' willingness to adopt electric motorcycles in Solo, Indonesia
Electric vehicles, air pollution, and the motorcycle city: A stated preference survey of consumers' willingness to adopt electric motorcycles in Solo, Indonesia
复制标题
DOI：
10.1016/j.trd.2017.07.027
复制
发表时间：
2019-03-01
影响因子：
7.6
通讯作者：
Guerra, Erick
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Guerra, Erick
本文介绍了一个选择实验的结果，以评估电动摩托车在多大程度上是一个潜在的替代汽油动力摩托车在梭罗，印度尼西亚。调查受访者面临五种选择场景，他们根据价格，速度，范围和充电时间在传统摩托车，电动摩托车和无摩托车之间进行选择。大约1200人完成了所有五个选择方案，并充分回答了社会经济和偏好问题。与东南亚大部分地区一样，摩托车在交通系统中占主导地位，并提供廉价，相对安全和方便的点对点旅行。然而，摩托车也会产生大量有害的局部排放。为了估计选择不同摩托车类型的概率，调查数据拟合与随机系数的混合logit模型。这种规范允许随着时间的推移，选择之间的相关性，选择替代品之间的灵活替代，以及消费者偏好的变化。调查和分析的结果表明，电动摩托车几乎肯定有市场，但它们的价格和性能必须与低成本的汽油动力摩托车竞争。速度、续航里程、充电时间和价格都很重要，受访者愿意为续航里程长10公里、速度快10公里/小时或充电时间短1小时的摩托车支付7-13%的溢价。充电时间尤其重要，这表明电池充电技术和充电基础设施的改进可能会极大地影响消费者采用电动摩托车的意愿。年轻的非吸烟受访者对环境的关注和对电动自行车的有利看法最有可能选择电动摩托车。
This paper presents the results of a choice experiment to evaluate the extent to which electric motorcycles are a potential replacement for gasoline-powered motorcycles in Solo, Indonesia. Survey respondents faced five choice scenarios where they selected between a conventional motorcycle, an electric motorcycle, and no motorcycle based on price, speed, range, and charge time. Approximately 1200 individuals completed all five choice scenarios and fully responded to socioeconomic and preference questions. As in much of Southeast Asia, motorcycles dominate the transportation system and provide inexpensive, relatively safe, and convenient point-to-point travel. However, motorcycles also produce substantial, harmful local emissions. To estimate the probability of selecting different motorcycle types, the survey data are fit with a mixed logit model with random coefficients. This specification allows correlation across choices over time, flexible substitution across the choice alternatives, and variation in consumer preferences. The results of the survey and analysis indicate that there is almost certainly a market for electric motorcycles but their price and performance will have to be competitive with low-cost, gas powered ones. Speed, range, charge time, and price all mattered substantially with respondents willing to pay a 7-13% premium for motorcycles with 10 km longer range, 10 km/h faster speed, or an hour shorter charge time. Charge time was particularly important, suggesting that improvements in battery charging technology and charging infrastructure could substantially impact consumers' willingness to adopt electric motorcycles. Younger non-smoking respondents with concerns about the environment and favorable views of e-bikes were most likely to choose electric motorcycles.