Modelling Transitions To and From Democracy
Modelling Transitions To and From Democracy
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模拟民主的转变
DOI：
10.1080/13510340701303196
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发表时间：
2007
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
M. Lustik
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Jay Ulfelder;M. Lustik
本文描述了对影响使用新的政权类型衡量标准向民主过渡或从民主过渡的国家的前景的因素进行广泛重新分析的结果。虽然一些结果与之前的定量和比较研究一致，但其他结果则不然。例如，与其他研究一致，本文发现，当专制国家为公民自由提供更广泛的保护、经历政治领导层的更迭或遭受经济衰退时，它们更有可能向民主过渡。与此同时，分析并不支持邻国的转型直接改善民主转型前景的说法，也不支持经济衰退和总统制增加民主崩溃风险的说法。也许最有趣的是，我们向民主转型的模式还对将经济发展与民主化联系起来的旧故事进行了新的转折。对于以前尝试过民主的威权统治国家来说，这里的研究表明，正如现代化理论所表明的那样，发展确实改善了再次尝试民主的前景。然而，对于没有民主经验的国家来说，富裕并不能带来直接的民主化好处，而且似乎有助于维持独裁统治。
This article describes the results of a broad reanalysis of factors shaping the prospects of countries making a transition to or from democracy using a new measure of regime type. While some of the results are consistent with prior quantitative and comparative research, others are not. For example, in line with other studies, the article finds that autocracies are more likely to make a transition to democracy when they offer broader protections for civil liberties, experience a change in political leadership, or suffer an economic downturn. At the same time, the analysis does not support the claim that transitions in neighbouring countries directly improve prospects for a transition to democracy, or that economic decline and presidential systems heighten the risk of democratic breakdown. Perhaps most intriguing, our model of transitions to democracy also identifies a new twist on old stories linking economic development to democratization. For countries under authoritarian rule that have attempted democracy before, the research here indicates that development does improve prospects for another attempt, as modernization theory suggests. For countries with no democratic experience, however, affluence conveys no direct democratizing benefit and appears, if anything, to help sustain authoritarian rule.