Opportunities for a probabilistic risk assessment of chemicals in the European Union
Opportunities for a probabilistic risk assessment of chemicals in the European Union
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DOI：
10.1016/s0045-6535(00)00087-4
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发表时间：
2001-04-01
期刊：
影响因子：
8.8
通讯作者：
van der Poel, P
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jager, T;Vermeire, TG;van der Poel, P
在新物质和现有物质的风险评估中，当前的做法是使用暴露浓度或剂量的确定性商和无影响水平来表征风险。通过在方法中引入最坏情况假设来解决不确定性。由于此程序会导致评估的保守程度未知，因此建议定量处理不确定性。本文讨论了概率风险评估框架的优点和可能性，并通过示例计算进行了说明。此外，还采访了欧盟成员国和化工行业的代表，以了解他们对将不确定性分析应用于工业化学品风险评估的看法。 (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. 保留所有权利。
In risk assessment of new and existing substances, it is current practice to characterise risk using a deterministic quotient of the exposure concentration, or the dose, and a no-effect level. A sense of uncertainty is tackled by introducing worst-case assumptions in the methodology. Since this procedure leads to an assessment with an unknown degree of conservatism, it is advisable to deal quantitatively with uncertainties. This paper discusses the advantages and possibilities of a probabilistic risk assessment framework, illustrated with an example calculation. Furthermore, representatives of EU Member States and the chemical industry were interviewed to find out their views on applying uncertainty analysis to risk assessment of industrial chemicals. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.