Projecting future supply and demand for physical therapists in Japan using system dynamics
Projecting future supply and demand for physical therapists in Japan using system dynamics
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DOI：
10.1016/j.hlpt.2019.05.003
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发表时间：
2019-06-01
影响因子：
6
通讯作者：
Yamashina, Hiroko
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Morii, Yasuhiro;Ishikawa, Tomoki;Yamashina, Hiroko
目标：日本是世界上最古老的国家，预计其对医疗保健的需求将增加。虽然有必要对物理治疗服务的供求情况进行明确的预测，但目前还没有对日本物理治疗师的供求情况进行预测的研究。至于物理治疗师的供应是否足够，则未有共识。本研究项目的供应和需求，为医疗决策者提供基本data.Methods：建立一个系统动力学模型，以预测2014年至2040年在日本的医院和诊所工作的物理治疗师的数量。未来的物理治疗的需求估计使用康复服务利用数据从开放的国家数据库，一个公开的全国性的健康索赔数据库。计算充足率（供需），并对供应相关参数进行敏感性分析。结果：预计2025年和2040年物理治疗师数量将分别是2014年的1.74倍和2.54倍。2015年、2025年和2040年的充足率分别为1.72、2.39和3.30。敏感性分析表明，自然减员率有最大的影响sufficient.Conclusions：虽然目前的供应似乎是需要的，考虑到预期的增加和医疗需求的不确定性。然而，未来有可能出现供应过剩，特别是在2025年之后，届时需求增长率将下降。需要进一步的研究来评估物理治疗师在地区和专业之间的分布。(C)2019年医学研究生奖学金。由爱思唯尔有限公司出版。保留所有权利。
Objectives: Japan is the oldest country in the world, and its demand for medical care is expected to increase. Although a clear vision regarding the supply and demand for physical therapy services is necessary, there has been no research that forecasts the supply and demand for physical therapists in Japan. Consensus has not been reached on whether the supply of physical therapists is sufficient. This study projects this supply and demand to provide medical policymakers with basic data.Methods: A system dynamics model was created to predict the number of physical therapists working in hospitals and clinics in Japan from 2014 to 2040. The future demand for physical therapy was estimated using the rehabilitation service utilization data from Open National Database, a publicly available nationwide health claims database. Sufficiency rates (supply/demand) were calculated, and sensitivity analysis was conducted on supply-related parameters.Results: The number of physical therapists was projected to be 1.74 and 2.54 times greater in 2025 and 2040, respectively, than in 2014. The sufficiency rates were 1.72, 2.39, and 3.30 in 2015, 2025, and 2040, respectively. The sensitivity analysis revealed that attrition rates had the greatest effects on sufficiency.Conclusions: Although the current supply appears to be needed, considering the expected increase and uncertainty in medical needs. However, there is a possibility of a future oversupply, especially after 2025, when the rate of increase in demand will lessen. Further studies are required to evaluate the distribution of physical therapists among regions and specialties. (C) 2019 Fellowship of Postgraduate Medicine. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.