Modelling estuarine Crustacea population fluctuations in response to physico-chemical trends
Modelling estuarine Crustacea population fluctuations in response to physico-chemical trends
复制标题
DOI：
10.3354/meps178089
复制
发表时间：
1999-01-01
影响因子：
2.5
通讯作者：
Thomas, RM
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Attrill, MJ;Power, M;Thomas, RM
定期采样（一般每2周）6种河口甲壳动物，Carcinus maenas，Liocarcinus holsatus，Crangon crangon，Palaemon longirostris，Palaemon serratus和Gammarus spp.（主要是G。zaddachi），在12年的时间内从英国泰晤士河口的西瑟罗克发电站的冷却水进水口滤网中获取。此外，收集了同一时期非生物变量（淡水流量、盐度、温度、溶解氧、pH值、悬浮固体、总氮）的比较数据集。综合性质的时间序列，并伴随着一套变量，允许使用多元线性回归技术的6个物种的种群丰度趋势的统计模型的建设。建立了C. maenas角Crangon和钩虾属，准确预测年度和长期丰度波动。所有模型都有很强的季节性成分，虽然C，maenas温度是唯一的物理化学变量具有显着的解释力。温度作为一个控制变量的物种的重要性得到加强，包括一个工具变量来模拟觅食活动的阈值温度。发现最佳值为8 ℃。发现C，crangon与溶解氧呈正相关，但随着时间的推移，丰度略有下降。有没有显着的关系，无论是盐度或温度，变量以前被认为是重要的。钩虾属，丰度有2个显着的解释变量（温度和盐度），但也表现出随着时间的推移，人口规模大幅下降。L. holsatus和P. serratus是夏季发生的物种，因此记录得太少，无法充分捕捉季节动态。尽管时间序列长，没有显着的模型是可能的远P，longirostris丰度（非正态残差），这已被建议以前有很强的关系与盐度。研究结果提供了第一个重要的多元线性回归模型，可以准确预测河口甲壳类动物的丰度。虽然这些模型是有用的，有助于了解泰晤士河的变化，这将是有趣的，以确定是否在其他河口的人口表现出类似的套房的物理化学参数的关系。
Regular samples (generally every 2 wk) of 6 estuarine crustacean species, Carcinus maenas, Liocarcinus holsatus, Crangon crangon, Palaemon longirostris, Palaemon serratus and Gammarus spp. (mainly G. zaddachi), were taken over a 12 yr period from the cooling water intake screens of West Thurrock power station on the Thames estuary, UK. Additionally, comparative data sets for abiotic variables (freshwater flow, salinity, temperature, dissolved oxygen, pH, suspended solids, total nitrogen) were collected for the same time period. The comprehensive nature of the time series, and accompanying suite of variables, allowed the construction of statistical models for the trends in population abundance of the 6 species using multiple linear regression techniques. Statistically significant models were constructed for C. maenas, C. crangon and Gammarus spp., accurately predicting annual, and longer term, fluctuations in abundance. All models had strong seasonal components, although for C, maenas temperature was the only physico-chemical variable with significant explanatory power. The importance of temperature as a controlling variable for the species was reinforced by the inclusion of an instrumental variable to simulate a threshold temperature for foraging activity. The optimal value was found to be 8 degrees C. C, crangon was found to be positively correlated with dissolved oxygen, but showed a slight decline in abundance over the time period. There was no significant relationship with either salinity or temperature, variables previously suggested as being important. Gammarus spp, abundance had 2 significant explanatory variables (temperature and salinity) but also demonstrated a large decrease in population size with time. L. holsatus and P. serratus are summer-occurring species, so were recorded too infrequently to adequately capture seasonal dynamics. Despite the long time series, no significant model was possible far P, longirostris abundance (non-normal residuals), which has been suggested previously as having a strong relationship with salinity. The results of the study provide the first significant multiple Linear regression models that accurately predict estuarine crustacean abundance. Whilst these models are useful for helping to understand variability in the Thames, it will be interesting to determine whether populations in other estuaries demonstrate relationships with similar suites of physico-chemical parameters.