New Evidence on Deficits and Interest Rates
New Evidence on Deficits and Interest Rates
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关于赤字和利率的新证据
DOI：
10.2307/1992316
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发表时间：
1986
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
G. Hoelscher
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
G. Hoelscher
理论上，人们普遍认为政府借款的增加会导致利率上升。 1 但这一命题的实证支持充其量是微弱的。最近的几篇论文揭示了赤字和短期利率之间没有密切的关系。然而，本文报告的研究表明，尽管赤字与短期利率之间的关系可能很脆弱，但有强有力的证据表明，较大的赤字与较高的长期利率相关。关于联邦借款和利率之间是否存在密切关系的争论大多涉及挤出问题。这场争论的焦点是政府财政行动对私人支出的直接和间接影响。这些效应已在理论文献中得到充分记录（例如，Buiter 1977；Carlson 和 Spencer 1975；Blinder 和 Solow 1973）。该文献中研究的许多挤出效应取决于政府借款与高利率之间的联系（Friedman 1978；Meyer 1975；Silber 1970）。这被称为“短期间接挤出”，当政府支出（和借款）增加导致利率上升时可能会发生，从而导致私人支出减少（Buiter 1977，第310-13页）。
IT IS GENERALLY ASSUMED ON THEORETICAL GROUNDS that increases in government borrowing cause interest rates to rise. 1 But empirical support for this proposition has been weak at best. Several recent papers have uncovered no strong relationship between deficits and short-terrn interest rates. However, the research reported here indicates that although the relationship between deficits and short-terrn interest rates may be tenuous, there is strong evidence that larger deficits are associated with higher long-terrn interest rates. Much of the debate about whether there is a strong relationship between federal borrowing and interest rates concerns the crowding-out question. This controversy centers on the direct and indirect eilffects of government fiscal actions on private spending. These effects have been well documented in the theoretical literature (e.g., Buiter 1977; Carlson and Spencer 1975; Blinder and Solow 1973). Many of the crowding-out effects studied in this literature depend on the connection between government borrowing and high interest rates (Friedman 1978; Meyer 1975; Silber 1970). This is called "short-run indirect crowding out" and may occur when increases in government spending (and borrowing) cause interest rates to rise, which then may cause private spending to be reduced (Buiter 1977, pp. 310-13).