Poultry, pig and the risk of BSE following the feed ban in France - A spatial analysis
Poultry, pig and the risk of BSE following the feed ban in France - A spatial analysis
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DOI：
10.1051/vetres:2005020
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发表时间：
2005-07-01
影响因子：
4.4
通讯作者：
Ducrot, C
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Abrial, D;Calavas, D;Ducrot, C
进行了空间分析，以分析为什么牛海绵状脑病（BSE）的风险在法国的空间异质性，在禁止牛的肉骨粉饲料。评估了牛饲料和单胃饲料之间交叉污染的假设，这是从以前的调查中强烈建议的，假设在给定的地区，猪或家禽的密度越高，交叉污染和牛感染的风险可能越高。数据涉及467例出生于法国的疯牛病病例，这些病例是在肉骨粉禁令（1990年7月）之后出生的，并在2001年7月1日至2003年12月31日期间发现的，当时监测系统是最佳的，没有空间偏差。疾病映射模型是用贝叶斯图形建模方法并基于具有空间平滑（分层方法）和协变量的泊松分布来阐述的。参数估计的马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗模拟方法。主要结果是家禽密度对BSE风险没有显著影响，而猪密度与每10000头猪2.4%的风险增加显著相关。具有显著猪效应的地区位于猪密度高以及猪牛比例高的地区。尽管家禽密度对BSE风险没有全球影响，但某些地区的家禽影响显著，当考虑猪和家禽密度时，在其他一些地区的风险得到了更好的解释。这些发现与交叉污染的假设一致，交叉污染可能发生在饲料厂、食品运输过程中或农场。需要进一步的研究来更精确地探索交叉污染是如何发生的。
A spatial analysis was carried out in order to analyse the reason why the risk of Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) was spatially heterogeneous in France, during the period following the feed ban of Meat and Bone Meal to cattle. The hypothesis of cross-contamination between cattle feedstuff and monogastric feedstuff, which was strongly suggested from previous investigations, was assessed, with the assumption that the higher the pig or poultry density is in a given area, the higher the risk of cross-contamination and cattle infection might be. The data concerned the 467 BSE cases born in France after the ban of meat and bone meal ( July 1990) and detected between July 1st, 2001 and December 31, 2003, when the surveillance system was optimal and not spatially biased. The disease mapping models were elaborated with the Bayesian graphical modelling methods and based on a Poisson distribution with spatial smoothing ( hierarchical approach) and covariates. The parameters were estimated by a Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation method. The main result was that the poultry density did not significantly influence the risk of BSE whereas the pig density was significantly associated with an increase in the risk of 2.4% per 10 000 pigs. The areas with a significant pig effect were located in regions with a high pig density as well as a high ratio of pigs to cattle. Despite the absence of a global effect of poultry density on the BSE risk, some areas had a significant poultry effect and the risk was better explained in some others when considering both pig and poultry densities. These findings were in agreement with the hypothesis of cross-contamination, which could take place at the feedstuff factory, during the shipment of food or on the farm. Further studies are needed to more precisely explore how the cross-contamination happened.