Modelling regional responses by marine pelagic ecosystems to global climate change
Modelling regional responses by marine pelagic ecosystems to global climate change
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DOI：
10.1029/2001gl014130
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发表时间：
2002-08-29
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Doney, SC
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Boyd, PW;Doney, SC
目前的海洋-大气耦合模式（COAM）对未来海洋人为碳吸收的预测表明，由于表面变暖，分层增强和温盐翻转减缓，速率降低。此类模型依赖于简单、大量的生物地球化学参数化，而最近的海洋观察表明，植物区系变化可能是由气候变异引起的，广泛、复杂，并直接影响生物地球化学循环。我们提出了一个战略，将生态系统功能的COAM的，并评估结果与特定区域的生态系统动态和年际变化使用模板的海洋生态省。说明性的模拟固氮与离线多物种，功能组模型表明显着的变化，本世纪末的生态系统结构，一些最大的区域影响所造成的变化，在生物群落的面积范围。
Current coupled ocean-atmosphere model (COAM) projections of future oceanic anthropogenic carbon uptake suggest reduced rates due to surface warming, enhanced stratification, and slowed thermohaline overturning. Such models rely on simple, bulk biogeochemical parameterisations, whereas recent ocean observations indicate that floristic shifts may be induced by climate variability, are widespread, complex, and directly impact biogeochemical cycles. We present a strategy to incorporate ecosystem function in COAM's and to evaluate the results in relation to region-specific ecosystem dynamics and interannual variability using a template of oceanic biogeographical provinces. Illustrative simulations for nitrogen fixers with an off-line multi-species, functional group model suggest significant changes by the end of this century in ecosystem structure, with some of the largest regional impacts caused by shifts in the areal extent of biomes.