Developing an expert elicited simulation model to evaluate invasive species and fire management alternatives
Developing an expert elicited simulation model to evaluate invasive species and fire management alternatives
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开发专家引发的模拟模型来评估入侵物种和火灾管理替代方案
DOI：
10.1002/ecs2.2730
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发表时间：
2019
期刊：
影响因子：
2.7
通讯作者：
P. Grissom
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Catherine S. Jarnevich;Catherine Cullinane Thomas;N. Young;D. Backer;S. Cline;L. Frid;P. Grissom
入侵物种可以改变生态系统的特性，并导致景观状态的变化。负责维护景观的资源管理人员需要工具来了解替代行动（或不作为）对景观结构和功能的影响。模拟模型可以作为一个虚拟实验室，探索这些替代方案及其对景观的潜在影响。然而，为了发挥作用，管理者需要参与模型开发，以确保模型结构能够评估关键资源对合理行动的响应。在这里，我们详细介绍了一个状态和转换模拟模型（STSM）的发展，以评估水牛草（蒺藜纤毛L。syn Pennisetum ciliare（L.）链接）在Saguaro国家公园（SNP），亚利桑那州，美国，通过管理人员和研究人员之间的合作。我们整合专家知识和研究，创建和参数化一个随机的，空间上明确的STSM，以评估具体的管理目标。我们还开发了一个动态的STSM和火灾行为模型之间的联系，以允许探索潜在的新的过程引入到生态系统的水牛角入侵。我们的预测表明，水牛草可以预期将增加景观和火灾到模型中的集成加速了预计的入侵速度，并增加了管理关注的资源退化。我们强调了在建模过程中让最终用户参与的好处，以便该模型有针对性地评估管理目标，在这种情况下保留仙人掌（仙人掌（Engelm.）布里顿和罗斯）的景观。能够集成一个外部模型，可以帮助解决一个问题的独特特征，如引入火到SNP沙漠生态系统，增加了模拟的能力，以解决复杂的生态和管理问题。
Invasive species can alter ecosystem properties and cause state shifts in landscapes. Resource managers charged with maintaining landscapes require tools to understand implications of alternative actions (or inactions) on landscape structure and function. Simulation models can serve as a virtual laboratory to explore these alternatives and their potential impacts on a landscape. To be useful, however, managers need to participate in model development to ensure that model structure can evaluate the response of key resources to plausible actions. Here, we detail development of a state‐and‐transition simulation model (STSM) to evaluate buffelgrass (Cenchrus ciliaris L. syn Pennisetum ciliare (L.) Link) in Saguaro National Park (SNP), Arizona, USA, through collaboration between managers and researchers. We integrate expert knowledge and research to create and parameterize a stochastic, spatially explicit STSM to evaluate specific management objectives. We also develop a dynamic link between the STSM and a fire behavior model to allow exploration of potential novel processes introduced to the ecosystem by buffelgrass invasion. Our projections show that buffelgrass can be expected to increase on the landscape and that the integration of fire into the model accelerates the projected rate of invasion and increases degradation of resources of management concern. We highlight the benefit of engaging end users in the modeling process so that the model is targeted to evaluate management objectives, in this case retention of saguaro cacti (Carnegiea gigantea (Engelm.) Britton & Rose) on the landscape. Being able to integrate an external model that can help address the unique characteristics of a problem such as the introduction of fire into the SNP desert ecosystem increases the ability of simulations to address complex ecological and management questions.