Systematic Climate Model Biases in the Large‐Scale Patterns of Recent Sea‐Surface Temperature and Sea‐Level Pressure Change
Systematic Climate Model Biases in the Large‐Scale Patterns of Recent Sea‐Surface Temperature and Sea‐Level Pressure Change
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DOI：
10.1029/2022gl100011
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发表时间：
2022-08
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Robert C.J. Wills;Yue Dong;Cristian Proistosecu;K. Armour;D. Battisti
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Robert C.J. Wills;Yue Dong;Cristian Proistosecu;K. Armour;D. Battisti
近几十年来观测到的地表温度趋势的特点是：(A)印度洋-太平洋暖池增温加剧，赤道东太平洋略有降温，这与Walker环流加强一致，以及(B)南大洋降温。相比之下，最先进的耦合气候模型通常预测赤道东太平洋变暖加剧，沃克环流减弱，南大洋变暖。在这里，我们调查了16个气候模式大型集合通过外部强迫气候变化和内部变化的组合来再现1979-2020年期间观测到的海面温度和海平面气压趋势的能力。我们发现，由于模型所代表的内部可变性，观察到的趋势和模拟的趋势之间存在大规模差异的可能性很小(概率为5%)。印度-太平洋暖池与热带平均变暖之比的不同趋势表明，模式中几乎没有多年来的变化，这表明模式对历史强迫的反应存在偏差，这是差异的一部分。
Observed surface temperature trends over recent decades are characterized by (a) intensified warming in the Indo‐Pacific Warm Pool and slight cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific, consistent with Walker circulation strengthening, and (b) Southern Ocean cooling. In contrast, state‐of‐the‐art coupled climate models generally project enhanced warming in the eastern equatorial Pacific, Walker circulation weakening, and Southern Ocean warming. Here we investigate the ability of 16 climate model large ensembles to reproduce observed sea‐surface temperature and sea‐level pressure trends over 1979–2020 through a combination of externally forced climate change and internal variability. We find large‐scale differences between observed and modeled trends that are very unlikely (<5% probability) to occur due to internal variability as represented in models. Disparate trends in the ratio of Indo‐Pacific Warm Pool to tropical‐mean warming, which shows little multi‐decadal variability in models, hint that model biases in the response to historical forcing constitute part of the discrepancy.