Trajectories of Handgun Carrying in Rural Communities From Early Adolescence to Young Adulthood.
Trajectories of Handgun Carrying in Rural Communities From Early Adolescence to Young Adulthood.
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DOI：
10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2022.5127
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发表时间：
2022-04-01
影响因子：
13.8
通讯作者：
Rowhani-Rahbar A
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ellyson AM;Gause EL;Oesterle S;Kuklinski MR;Briney JS;Weybright EH;Haggerty KP;Lyons VH;Schleimer JP;Rowhani-Rahbar A
在农村地区长大的年轻人携带手枪的模式、频率和持续时间是什么？这项对2002名农村学生的队列研究发现了6种不同的手枪携带轨迹，许多青少年至少在12岁时就开始携带手枪，在过去12个月内，超过20%的一些群体携带手枪40次或更多。这项研究表明，预防计划，以减少与枪支有关的伤害的风险，应在小学早期交付。描述青少年和年轻人携带手枪的模式可以为减少枪支相关伤害的计划提供信息。农村青少年携带手枪的纵向模式尚未确定。通过描述农村社区青少年从青春期早期到成年早期的手枪携带模式，评估具体的干预点，并量化开始时的年龄、持续时间和携带频率在已确定的模式中的差异。这项队列研究使用了社区护理预防系统的社区随机试验的对照组，该试验在7个州的12个农村社区的公立学校学生中进行。参与者在12至26岁（2005-2019年）的10个数据收集点自我报告了他们的手枪携带情况。数据分析时间为2021年1月至7月。在过去的12个月里携带过手枪。潜在类增长分析被用来估计手枪携带轨迹。在2002名学生的纵向农村样本中，1 040名（51.9%）是男性; 532名（26.6%）是西班牙裔、拉丁裔、拉丁裔或拉丁裔; 1 310名（65.4%）是白色; 649名学生（32.4%）的父母一方的最高教育程度是高中或以下。在过去12个月内，青少年携带手枪的患病率范围为5.3%（95/1795）至7.4%（146/1969），并在25岁中期增加（范围为8.9% [154/1722]至10.9% [185/1704]，从23岁至26岁）。在12至26岁之间报告至少一次携带手枪的参与者中（n = 601 [30.0%]），320人（53.2%）报告仅在1波中携带手枪。潜在类别增长分析表明6个纵向轨迹：从未携带或携带概率低（1590 [79.4%]），成年初带（166 [8.3%]），稳步增加的承载量163例（8.1%），青春期携带53例（2.6%），衰退期携带24例（1.2%），高概率持续携带6例（0.3%）。开始携带手枪的最早平均（SD）年龄发生在青少年和下降携带组分别为12.6（0.9）和12.5（0.7）岁。一些群体超过20%（成年初显期[26岁：49/154（31.8%）]，稳步增加[26岁：37/131（28.2%）]、下降[13岁：23人中有7人（30.4%）]和高概率和持续携带[年龄15岁：6人中的3人（50.0%）]）报告在过去一年中携带40次或更多。这项研究发现，在农村地区，从青少年到年轻人携带手枪的模式不同。调查结果表明，在农村地区促进手枪安全应该及早开始。潜在的高风险轨迹，包括高频携带，应该成为未来工作的重点，以探索农村地区携带手枪的前因和后果。这项队列研究通过描述农村社区青少年从青春期早期到成年早期携带手枪的模式来评估具体的干预点，并量化了开始时的年龄，持续时间和携带频率在确定的模式中的差异。
What are the patterns, frequency, and duration of handgun carrying among youths growing up in rural areas? This cohort study of 2002 rural students found 6 distinct trajectories of handgun carrying, with many youths initiating handgun carrying at least as early as 12 years of age, and more than 20% of some groups carrying a handgun 40 or more times in the past 12 months. This study suggests that prevention programs to reduce the risk of firearm-related harm should be delivered early in the elementary school period. Characterizing patterns of handgun carrying among adolescents and young adults can inform programs to reduce firearm-related harm. Longitudinal patterns of handgun carrying among rural adolescents have not been identified. To assess specific points of intervention by characterizing patterns of handgun carrying by youths in rural communities from early adolescence to young adulthood and to quantify how age at initiation, duration, and frequency of carrying differ across identified patterns. This cohort study uses the control group of the community-randomized trial of the Communities That Care prevention system, conducted among public school students in 12 rural communities across 7 states. Participants self-reported their handgun carrying at 10 data collection points from 12 to 26 years of age (2005-2019). Data were analyzed from January to July 2021. Handgun carrying in the past 12 months. Latent class growth analysis was used to estimate handgun carrying trajectories. In this longitudinal rural sample of 2002 students, 1040 (51.9%) were male; 532 (26.6%) were Hispanic, Latino, Latina, or Latinx; 1310 (65.4%) were White; and the highest level of educational attainment of either parent was a high school degree or less for 649 students (32.4%). The prevalence of handgun carrying in the last 12 months ranged from 5.3% (95 of 1795) to 7.4% (146 of 1969) in adolescence and increased during the mid-20s (range, 8.9% [154 of 1722] to 10.9% [185 of 1704] from 23 to 26 years of age). Among the participants who reported handgun carrying at least once between 12 and 26 years of age (n = 601 [30.0%]), 320 (53.2%) reported carrying a handgun in only 1 wave. Latent class growth analysis indicated 6 longitudinal trajectories: never or low probability of carrying (1590 [79.4%]), emerging adulthood carrying (166 [8.3%]), steadily increasing carrying (163 [8.1%]), adolescent carrying (53 [2.6%]), declining carrying (24 [1.2%]), and high probability and persistent carrying (6 [0.3%]). The earliest mean (SD) age at initiation of handgun carrying occurred in both the adolescent and declining carrying groups at the ages of 12.6 (0.9) and 12.5 (0.7) years, respectively. More than 20% of some groups (emerging adulthood [age 26 years: 49 of 154 (31.8%)], steadily increasing [age 26 years: 37 of 131 (28.2%)], declining [age 13 years: 7 of 23 (30.4%)], and high probability and persistent carrying [age 15 years: 3 of 6 (50.0%)]) reported carrying 40 times or more in the past year by the age of 26 years. This study found distinct patterns of handgun carrying from adolescence to young adulthood in rural settings. Findings suggest that promoting handgun safety in rural areas should start early. Potential high-risk trajectories, including carrying at high frequencies, should be the focus of future work to explore the antecedents and consequences of handgun carrying in rural areas. This cohort study assesses specific points of intervention by characterizing patterns of handgun carrying by youths in rural communities from early adolescence to young adulthood and quantifies how age at initiation, duration, and frequency of carrying differ across identified patterns.
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