Macroclimatic change expected to transform coastal wetland ecosystems this century
Macroclimatic change expected to transform coastal wetland ecosystems this century
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DOI：
10.1038/nclimate3203
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发表时间：
2017-02-01
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
McLeod, Jennie L.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Gabler, Christopher A.;Osland, Michael J.;McLeod, Jennie L.
沿海湿地位于陆地和海洋的交界处，极易受到气候变化的影响（1-3）。大气候（例如，温度和降水状况）极大地影响着沿海湿地生态系统的结构和功能（4，5）。然而，关于气候变化对沿海湿地影响的研究主要集中在海平面上升上，在很大程度上忽视了宏观气候驱动因素，尽管它们具有改变植物群落结构（6-12）和改变生态系统商品和服务（5，13）的力量。在这里，我们使用沿着墨西哥湾北方海岸广泛的温度和降水梯度收集的现场数据，根据大气候对湿地植物群落结构进行了建模。我们的分析量化强烈的非线性温度阈值调节沼泽到红树林转换的潜力。我们还确定了降水阈值的优势，由各种功能组，包括肉质植物和无植被的泥滩。大气候驱动的基础植物物种丰富度的变化将对某些生态系统产品和服务产生重大影响（5、14 -16）。根据目前和预测的气候条件，我们预测，整个地区的转型生态变化可能在本世纪，即使在保守的气候情景。沿海湿地生态系统在全球范围内的功能相似，因此该地区的变化表明全球气候相似地区未来可能发生的变化。
Coastal wetlands, existing at the interface between land and sea, are highly vulnerable to climate change(1-3). Macroclimate (for example, temperature and precipitation regimes) greatly influences coastal wetland ecosystem structure and function(4,5). However, research on climate change impacts in coastal wetlands has concentrated primarily on sea-level rise and largely ignored macroclimatic drivers, despite their power to transform plant community structure(6-12) and modify ecosystemgoodsandservices(5,13). Here, wemodelwetland plant community structure based on macroclimate using field data collected across broad temperature and precipitation gradients along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast. Our analyses quantify strongly nonlinear temperature thresholds regulating the potential for marsh-to-mangrove conversion. We also identify precipitation thresholds for dominance by various functional groups, including succulent plants and unvegetated mudflats. Macroclimate-driven shifts in foundation plant species abundance will have large effects on certain ecosystem goods and services(5,14-16). Based on current and projected climatic conditions, we project that transformative ecological changes are probable throughout the region this century, even under conservative climate scenarios. Coastal wetland ecosystems are functionally similar worldwide, so changes in this region are indicative of potential future changes in climatically similar regions globally.