The European Flood Alert System and the communication, perception, and use of ensemble predictions for operational flood risk management
The European Flood Alert System and the communication, perception, and use of ensemble predictions for operational flood risk management
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DOI：
10.1002/hyp.9419
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发表时间：
2013-01-01
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
Pappenberger, Florian
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Demeritt, David;Nobert, Sebastien;Pappenberger, Florian
虽然集合预报系统（EPS）作为最先进的洪水预报技术越来越受到推崇，但其通信、感知和使用所产生的警报却很少受到关注。本文采用多种定性研究方法，包括培训研讨会上的直接用户反馈、对欧洲25个预报中心的实地考察中的参与者观察，以及对17个欧洲国家69名预报员、民防官员和参与业务洪水风险管理的政策制定者的深度访谈，讨论了欧洲洪水警报系统（EFAS）警报在业务洪水管理中的感知、沟通和使用。特别是，本文描述了EFAS警报的设计是如何根据用户反馈和对可视化EFAS输出的类似水文的方式的需求而演变的。它还记录了预测者对EFAS预测的价值和技能的各种看法，以及使用它们为业务决策提供信息的最佳方式。EFAS洪水警报普遍受到洪水预报员的欢迎，作为一种“预警”，以刺激更大的内部警惕。然而，在大多数情况下，它们本身并没有导致进一步的准备行动或向公众或紧急服务部门发出更早的警告。他们在应对中期概率警报方面的犹豫，凸显了一些更广泛的制度障碍，阻碍了研究界的希望，即EPS将很容易被业务预报员所接受，并导致洪水事件管理的立即改善。EFAS的经验为寻求在洪水预报和警报中实施EPS的其他水文部门提供了经验教训。版权所有：John Wiley & Sons， Ltd
Although ensemble prediction systems (EPS) are increasingly promoted as the scientific state-of-the-art for operational flood forecasting, the communication, perception, and use of the resulting alerts have received much less attention. Using a variety of qualitative research methods, including direct user feedback at training workshops, participant observation during site visits to 25 forecasting centres across Europe, and in-depth interviews with 69 forecasters, civil protection officials, and policy makers involved in operational flood risk management in 17 European countries, this article discusses the perception, communication, and use of European Flood Alert System (EFAS) alerts in operational flood management. In particular, this article describes how the design of EFAS alerts has evolved in response to user feedback and desires for a hydrographic-like way of visualizing EFAS outputs. It also documents a variety of forecaster perceptions about the value and skill of EFAS forecasts and the best way of using them to inform operational decision making. EFAS flood alerts were generally welcomed by flood forecasters as a sort of 'pre-alert' to spur greater internal vigilance. In most cases, however, they did not lead, by themselves, to further preparatory action or to earlier warnings to the public or emergency services. Their hesitancy to act in response to medium-term, probabilistic alerts highlights some wider institutional obstacles to the hopes in the research community that EPS will be readily embraced by operational forecasters and lead to immediate improvements in flood incident management. The EFAS experience offers lessons for other hydrological services seeking to implement EPS operationally for flood forecasting and warning. Copyright (C) 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.