Stalin’s terror and the long-term political effects of mass repression
Stalin’s terror and the long-term political effects of mass repression
复制标题
斯大林的恐怖和大规模镇压的长期政治影响
DOI：
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复制
发表时间：
2018
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Roya Talibova
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Y. Zhukov;Roya Talibova
压迫对政治参与有长期的负面影响。利用档案文件中数百万的逮捕记录和投票站一级的选举结果，我们研究了斯大林时代的镇压如何影响普京统治下的俄罗斯的选民投票率。为了估计镇压对投票的影响，我们利用外生变化的镇压，由于本世纪中叶苏联铁路的结构，和旅行距离的战俘营。我们发现，在斯大林统治下受到更严重压迫的社区今天不太可能投票。斯大林恐怖统治的选举遗产--在苏联解体几十年后，在多个选举周期（2003 - 12）中--是系统性的低投票率。为了表明我们的结果不是普京政权独有的，我们在乌克兰（2004 - 14）重复了我们的分析，并发现了类似的模式。这些结果突出了镇压对政治行为的负面影响，并挑战了暴露于暴力会增加政治参与的新兴观点。虽然过去的研究强调了几个月或几年的镇压的短期影响，但我们表明，这些影响可能会持续几代人，甚至是政治制度的变化。我们的研究结果还表明，镇压不一定是集体的或不加区别的，也会产生社区一级的影响。
Repression has a long-term negative effect on political participation. Using millions of arrest records from archival documents, and polling station-level election results, we examine how exposure to Stalin-era repression affects voter turnout in Putin’s Russia. To estimate the effect of repression on voting, we exploit exogenous variation in repression due to the structure of mid-century Soviet railroads, and travel distances to prison camps. We find that communities more heavily repressed under Stalin are less likely to vote today. The electoral legacy of Stalin’s terror – decades after the Soviet collapse, and across multiple election cycles (2003–12) – is systematically lower turnout. To show that our result is not unique to the Putin regime, we replicate our analysis in Ukraine (2004–14), and find similar patterns. These results highlight the negative consequences of repression for political behavior, and challenge the emerging view that exposure to violence increases political engagement. While past research has emphasized the short-term effects of repression over several months or years, we show that these effects may be durable over generations and even changes of political regime. Our findings also demonstrate that repression need not be collective or indiscriminate to have community-level effects.
普京现象
DOI：
10.1080/13523270802510610
发表时间：
2008
期刊：
Journal of Communist Studies and Transition Politics
影响因子：
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作者：
White S
通讯作者：
White S