Expanded agroecological niches and redistributed risks in northern Peru’s Chicama Valley during late-Holocene ENSO climate changes
Expanded agroecological niches and redistributed risks in northern Peru’s Chicama Valley during late-Holocene ENSO climate changes
复制标题
DOI：
10.1177/09596836221121761
复制
发表时间：
2022-09
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
B. Vining;A. Hillman;Daniel A. Contreras;E. Tejedor
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
B. Vining;A. Hillman;Daniel A. Contreras;E. Tejedor
南美洲干旱地区对人类居民构成独特的气候风险，这是由于波动性事件在年际至百年尺度上可能造成明显不同的水文气候条件。然而，这种波动的一个主要驱动因素-厄尔尼诺/南方涛动-具有半规则的周期性。古气候和考古证据表明，不仅ENSO模式的强度和周期性在全新世晚期发生了变化，而且其影响可能被农业家采用适应性风险策略所认识，适应，并可能被利用。我们通过一个耦合的古水文气候和农业生态学模型，研究了过去1.3 kyr的ENSO周期性，生态过渡和考古定居在秘鲁的奇卡马山谷之间的关系。我们重建期间，ENSO样的条件占主导地位的过去的水文气候和现代ENSO积极水文气候条件下的生态生产力提出了一个定量的，空间上明确的分析。我们表明，考古学定居模式对这些转变很敏感，并反映了利用扩大的农业生态位的努力。这种扩大的生态位有可能抵消突发厄尔尼诺/南方涛动气候事件的不利影响和风险。这些结果表明，考古社区意识到ENSO风险，并相应地管理生产战略，突出了考虑气候事件的净生态影响的风险演算的重要性。
South American arid lands present unique constellations of climatic risk to their human inhabitants, due to volatile events that can create markedly different hydroclimate conditions over interannual–centennial scales. However, a main driver of such volatility – the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) – occurs with semiregular periodicity. Paleoclimatic and archeological evidence indicate not only that the strength and periodicity of ENSO patterns have changed over the late-Holocene, but their impacts were likely recognized, adapted to, and perhaps capitalized upon by agriculturalists employing adaptive risk strategies. We examine relationships over the last 1.3 kyr between ENSO periodicity, ecological transitions, and archeological settlement in Peru’s Chicama Valley through a coupled paleohydroclimate and agroecology model. We reconstruct periods when ENSO-like conditions dominated past hydroclimates and present a quantitative, spatially-explicit analysis of ecological productivity during modern ENSO-positive hydroclimate conditions. We show that archeological settlement patterns are sensitive to these transformations and reflect efforts to capitalize on expanded agroecological niches. Such expanded niches potentially offset the adverse impacts and risks associated with abrupt ENSO climate events. These results suggest archeological communities were aware of ENSO risk and managed productive strategies accordingly, highlighting the importance of a risk calculus that considers the net ecological effects of climate events.