An epidemic model in a patchy environment
An epidemic model in a patchy environment
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DOI：
10.1016/j.mbs.2002.11.001
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发表时间：
2004-07-01
影响因子：
4.3
通讯作者：
Zhao, XQ
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Wang, W;Zhao, XQ
提出了一个描述种群扩散引起的疾病在斑块间传播的传染病模型。我们建立了一个阈值，高于该阈值，疾病是一致持久的，低于该阈值，无病平衡是局部吸引力，和全局吸引力时，在每个补丁中的易感和感染的个人有相同的扩散率。通过两个实例说明了种群扩散对疾病传播的重要作用。第一个模型表明，当一个斑块的繁殖数较大时，种群扩散会加剧疾病的传播;当所有斑块的繁殖数都合适且种群扩散率较大时，种群扩散会减少疾病的传播。第二个例子表明，种群扩散导致疾病在所有斑块中传播，即使疾病不能在每个孤立斑块中传播。(C)2004年由Elsevier Inc.出版
An epidemic model is proposed to describe the dynamics of disease spread among patches due to population dispersal. We establish a threshold above which the disease is uniformly persistent and below which disease-free equilibrium is locally attractive, and globally attractive when both susceptible and infective individuals in each patch have the same dispersal rate. Two examples are given to illustrate that the population dispersal plays an important role for the disease spread. The first one shows that the population dispersal can intensify the disease spread if the reproduction number for one patch is large, and can reduce the disease spread if the reproduction numbers for all patches are suitable and the population dispersal rate is strong. The second example indicates that a population dispersal results in the spread of the disease in all patches, even though the disease can not spread in each isolated patch. (C) 2004 Published by Elsevier Inc.