Alternative Covid-19 mitigation measures in school classrooms: analysis using an agent-based model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission
Alternative Covid-19 mitigation measures in school classrooms: analysis using an agent-based model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission
复制标题
学校教室中的替代性 Covid-19 缓解措施：使用基于代理的 SARS-CoV-2 传播模型进行分析
DOI：
10.1101/2021.08.30.21262826
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发表时间：
2021
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Woodhouse M
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Woodhouse M
SARS-CoV-2疫情影响了儿童的教育，学校被要求实施感染控制措施，这导致了一段时间的缺课和教室关闭。我们开发了一个基于病原体的SARS-CoV-2在学校教室中传播的流行病学模型，该模型使我们能够量化小学教室内的预计感染模式和相关的不确定性。我们的方法是基于使用随机网络，结构化的专家判断通知的接触模型。缓解策略在抑制感染爆发和限制学生缺席的有效性。由于Delta变异病毒正在出现，学校传播很可能在新一波疫情的初期发挥重要作用，因此重新检查了2020年秋季英格兰小学的COVID-19感染情况，然后使用该模型估计2021年秋季的感染水平。我们的结果与现有数据吻合良好。这些发现表明，基于测试的监测比气泡隔离更有效，无论是在减少传播还是避免学生缺勤方面，甚至考虑到自我测试的不敏感性。泡沫隔离需要大量的缺席，只有适度的影响，教室感染。然而，保持教室内接触率的降低对在学校环境中管理COVID-19有很大好处。
The SARS-CoV-2 epidemic has impacted children's education, with schools required to implement infection control measures that have led to periods of absence and classroom closures. We developed an agent-based epidemiological model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in a school classroom that allows us to quantify projected infection patterns within primary school classrooms, and related uncertainties. Our approach is based on a contact model constructed using random networks, informed by structured expert judgement. The effectiveness of mitigation strategies in suppressing infection outbreaks and limiting pupil absence are considered. COVID-19 infections in primary schools in England in autumn 2020 were re-examined and the model was then used to estimate infection levels in autumn 2021, as the Delta variant was emerging and it was thought likely that school transmission would play a major role in an incipient new wave of the epidemic. Our results were in good agreement with available data. These findings indicate that testing-based surveillance is more effective than bubble quarantine, both for reducing transmission and avoiding pupil absence, even accounting for insensitivity of self-administered tests. Bubble quarantine entails large numbers of absences, with only modest impact on classroom infections. However, maintaining reduced contact rates within the classroom can have a major benefit for managing COVID-19 in school settings.