Public health impact of a US ban on menthol in cigarettes and cigars: a simulation study.
Public health impact of a US ban on menthol in cigarettes and cigars: a simulation study.
复制标题
DOI：
10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2021-056604
复制
发表时间：
2023-04
期刊：
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Warner, Kenneth E.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Levy, David T.;Meza, Rafael;Yuan, Zhe;Li, Yameng;Cadham, Christopher;Sanchez-Romero, Luz Maria;Travis, Nargiz;Knoll, Marie;Liber, Alex C.;Mistry, Ritesh;Hirschtick, Jana L.;Fleischer, Nancy L.;Skolnick, Sarah;Brouwer, Andrew F.;Douglas, Cliff;Jeon, Jihyoun;Cook, Steven;Warner, Kenneth E.
美国食品和药物管理局最近宣布，打算于2021年4月在全国范围内禁止薄荷香烟和雪茄。该禁令的实施需要有证据证明它能改善公众健康。本文通过对吸烟开始、戒烟和转向尼古丁电子烟产品（NVPs）的影响，模拟了禁止香烟和雪茄中薄荷醇的潜在公共卫生影响。在校准了一个已建立的美国模拟模型以反映香烟和NVP使用的最新使用趋势后，我们扩展了该模型，以在现状情况下纳入薄荷和非薄荷香烟的使用情况。根据最近一项关于薄荷醇禁令对行为影响的专家启发的估计，我们制定了一个从2021年开始禁止薄荷醇的情景。我们估计，在2021年至2060年的现状情景和薄荷醇禁令情景中，吸烟和电子烟导致的死亡人数和生命年损失之间的差异对公共卫生的影响。由于这一禁令，预计到2026年，由于薄荷醇吸烟者既戒掉了NVP，也戒掉了可燃物，或者转向了NVP，总体吸烟率将下降15%。预计从2021年到2060年，这些转变将使吸烟和电子烟导致的累计死亡人数减少5%（总计65万），并使生命年损失减少8.8%（1130万）。敏感性分析显示，在不同的参数规格下，公共卫生效益显著。我们的研究结果强烈支持在香烟和雪茄中禁止薄荷醇的实施。
The US Food and Drug Administration most recently announced its intention to ban menthol cigarettes and cigars nationwide in April 2021. Implementation of the ban will require evidence that it would improve public health. This paper simulates the potential public health impact of a ban on menthol in cigarettes and cigars through its impacts on smoking initiation, smoking cessation and switching to nicotine vaping products (NVPs). After calibrating an established US simulation model to reflect recent use trends in cigarette and NVP use, we extended the model to incorporate menthol and non-menthol cigarette use under a status quo scenario. Applying estimates from a recent expert elicitation on the behavioural impacts of a menthol ban, we developed a menthol ban scenario with the ban starting in 2021. We estimated the public health impact as the difference between smoking and vaping-attributable deaths and life-years lost in the status quo scenario and the menthol ban scenario from 2021 to 2060. As a result of the ban, overall smoking was estimated to decline by 15% as early as 2026 due to menthol smokers quitting both NVP and combustible use or switching to NVPs. These transitions are projected to reduce cumulative smoking and vaping-attributable deaths from 2021 to 2060 by 5% (650 000 in total) and reduce life-years lost by 8.8% (11.3 million). Sensitivity analyses showed appreciable public health benefits across different parameter specifications. Our findings strongly support the implementation of a ban on menthol in cigarettes and cigars.
登录
查看更多内容
影响因子：
4.5
作者：
Chang CM;Corey CG;Rostron BL;Apelberg BJ
通讯作者：
Apelberg BJ
影响因子：
39
作者：
Christensen, Carol H.;Rostron, Brian;Freedman, Neal D.
通讯作者：
Freedman, Neal D.
影响因子：
7.6
作者：
Azagba, Sunday;Shan, Lingpeng;Latham, Keely
通讯作者：
Latham, Keely
影响因子：
5.2
作者：
Brouwer, Andrew F.;Jeon, Jihyoun;Meza, Rafael
通讯作者：
Meza, Rafael
影响因子：
6
作者：
Borland, Ron;Murray, Krista;Cummings, K. Michael
通讯作者：
Cummings, K. Michael