Volcanic Eruption Forecasts From Accelerating Rates of Drumbeat Long-Period Earthquakes
Volcanic Eruption Forecasts From Accelerating Rates of Drumbeat Long-Period Earthquakes
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DOI：
10.1002/2017gl076429
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发表时间：
2018-02-16
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Ruiz, Mario
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bell, Andrew F.;Naylor, Mark;Ruiz, Mario
在安山岩和英安岩火山爆发前，准周期性“鼓声”长周期地震（LP）的加速率通常被报道，并有望深入了解基本的喷发前过程的性质和改进的喷发预测。在这里，我们应用一个新的贝叶斯马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗伽马点过程的方法来调查一个非常发达的序列鼓拍LP之前，最近在通古拉瓦火山，厄瓜多尔大火山爆发。对于超过24小时，LP率增加，根据材料失效理论预测的逆幂律趋势，并与回顾性预测故障时间，同意在误差范围内的喷发发作。LP是由加速加载驱动的单个特征源的重复激活而产生的，而不是分布式故障过程，表明类似的随机趋势可以从完全不同的基础物理中出现。尽管如此，这种序列有明显的潜力，以改善在通古拉瓦和类似的火山喷发的预测。
Accelerating rates of quasiperiodic "drumbeat" long-period earthquakes (LPs) are commonly reported before eruptions at andesite and dacite volcanoes, and promise insights into the nature of fundamental preeruptive processes and improved eruption forecasts. Here we apply a new Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo gamma point process methodology to investigate an exceptionally well-developed sequence of drumbeat LPs preceding a recent large vulcanian explosion at Tungurahua volcano, Ecuador. For more than 24 hr, LP rates increased according to the inverse power law trend predicted by material failure theory, and with a retrospectively forecast failure time that agrees with the eruption onset within error. LPs resulted from repeated activation of a single characteristic source driven by accelerating loading, rather than a distributed failure process, showing that similar precursory trends can emerge from quite different underlying physics. Nevertheless, such sequences have clear potential for improving forecasts of eruptions at Tungurahua and analogous volcanoes.