Estimating HIV-1 incidence in Japan from the proportion of recent infections
Estimating HIV-1 incidence in Japan from the proportion of recent infections
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DOI：
10.1016/j.pmedr.2019.100994
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发表时间：
2019-12-01
影响因子：
2.8
通讯作者：
Matano, Tetsuro
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Matsuoka, Saori;Nagashima, Mami;Matano, Tetsuro
联合国艾滋病规划署/世卫组织90-90-90目标鼓励早期诊断和治疗，以控制HIV-1流行病，第一步是在感染者中实现90%的HIV-1诊断。在日本，每年约有30%的新报告病例是由艾滋病发病确定的，这意味着大量的HIV-1感染者仍未得到诊断。但未确诊病例的比例尚未确定。在本研究中，使用日本三个大都市地区（东京、大坂和福冈）的近期感染检测方法，确定了2006年至2015年近期HIV-1感染与新诊断病例的比例。在东京、大坂和福冈，感染和诊断之间的估计中位时间分别为1.0、1.8和2.9年。使用这些数据以及艾滋病毒/艾滋病国家监测数据通过反算方法估计年度艾滋病毒-1发病率，表明2006年至2015年东京未确诊的艾滋病毒-1新感染者比例为18%，大坂为22%，福冈为38%，日本为28%。这是第一份使用血清学生物标志物结合国家艾滋病毒/艾滋病监测数据估计日本HIV-1发病率的报告。
The first step of the UNAIDS/WHO 90-90-90 targets to encourage early diagnosis with treatment for the control of HIV-1 epidemic is to achieve 90% HIV-1 diagnosis in infected individuals. In Japan, approximately 30% of newly reported cases have been annually identified by AIDS onset, implying that substantial numbers of HIV-1-infected individuals remain undiagnosed. However, the proportion of undiagnosed cases has not yet been determined. In the present study, the proportion of recent HIV-1 infections to newly-diagnosed cases was determined from 2006 to 2015 using a recent infection assay for three metropolitan areas in Japan: Tokyo, Osaka, and Fukuoka. Estimated median periods between infection and diagnosis were 1.0, 1.8, and 2.9 years for Tokyo, Osaka, and Fukuoka, respectively. Estimation of annual HIV-1 incidence by a back-calculation method using these data as well as HIV/AIDS national surveillance data indicated proportions of undiagnosed to new HIV-1 infections from 2006 to 2015 to be 18% in Tokyo, 22% in Osaka, 38% in Fukuoka, and 28% in Japan. This is the first report estimating HIV-1 incidence in Japan using a serological biomarker in combination with national HIV/AIDS surveillance data.