Should I Stay or Should I Go? Explaining Variation in Western Jihadists' Choice between Domestic and Foreign Fighting
Should I Stay or Should I Go? Explaining Variation in Western Jihadists' Choice between Domestic and Foreign Fighting
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DOI：
10.1017/s0003055412000615
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发表时间：
2013-01
影响因子：
6.8
通讯作者：
Thomas Hegghammer
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Thomas Hegghammer
本文研究了西方圣战分子在冲突战区选择上的变化，以努力理解他们的动机。一些激进分子在国内发动袭击，而另一些人在国外加入叛乱，但很少有学者问他们为什么做出这些不同的选择。使用开源数据，我估计了每个战区的新兵供应量、外国战斗机的返回率，以及回国人员对国内恐怖活动的影响。初步数据表明，圣战分子更喜欢在国外作战，但少数人在变得激进后在国内发动袭击，最常见的方式是通过外国战斗或与老兵接触。大多数外国战士不会回来参加国内行动，但那些回来的人比非退伍军人更有效率。这些发现对我们理解圣战分子的动机、评估外国武装分子构成的恐怖主义威胁以及反恐政策都有影响。
This article studies variation in conflict theater choice by Western jihadists in an effort to understand their motivations. Some militants attack at home, whereas others join insurgencies abroad, but few scholars have asked why they make these different choices. Using open-source data, I estimate recruit supply for each theater, foreign fighter return rates, and returnee impact on domestic terrorist activity. The tentative data indicate that jihadists prefer foreign fighting, but a minority attacks at home after being radicalized, most often through foreign fighting or contact with a veteran. Most foreign fighters do not return for domestic operations, but those who do return are more effective operatives than nonveterans. The findings have implications for our understanding of the motivations of jihadists, for assessments of the terrorist threat posed by foreign fighters, and for counterterrorism policy.