Ranking the effectiveness of worldwide COVID-19 government interventions
Ranking the effectiveness of worldwide COVID-19 government interventions
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DOI：
10.1038/s41562-020-01009-0
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发表时间：
2020-11-16
影响因子：
29.9
通讯作者：
Klimek, Peter
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Haug, Nils;Geyrhofer, Lukas;Klimek, Peter
评估非药物干预措施（NPI）缓解SARS-CoV-2传播的有效性对于为未来的准备应对计划提供信息至关重要。在此，我们量化了在79个地区实施的6，068个分层编码的NPI对COVID-19有效繁殖数R-t的影响。我们提出了一种建模方法，结合了四个计算技术合并统计，推理和人工智能工具。我们使用两个外部数据集来验证我们的研究结果，这些数据集记录了来自226个国家的42，151个额外的NPI。我们的研究结果表明，NPI的适当组合是必要的，以遏制病毒的传播。破坏性较小、成本较低的NPI可以与更具侵入性、更激烈的NPI（例如，全国封锁）一样有效。通过使用特定国家的“假设”情景，我们评估了NPI的有效性如何取决于当地环境，例如采用的时间，为预测未来干预措施的有效性开辟了道路。Haug等人分析了200多个国家的50，000多项政府干预措施，发现风险沟通或增加医疗保健能力等软措施的组合，几乎和破坏性封锁一样有效
Assessing the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to mitigate the spread of SARS-CoV-2 is critical to inform future preparedness response plans. Here we quantify the impact of 6,068 hierarchically coded NPIs implemented in 79 territories on the effective reproduction number, R-t, of COVID-19. We propose a modelling approach that combines four computational techniques merging statistical, inference and artificial intelligence tools. We validate our findings with two external datasets recording 42,151 additional NPIs from 226 countries. Our results indicate that a suitable combination of NPIs is necessary to curb the spread of the virus. Less disruptive and costly NPIs can be as effective as more intrusive, drastic, ones (for example, a national lockdown). Using country-specific 'what-if' scenarios, we assess how the effectiveness of NPIs depends on the local context such as timing of their adoption, opening the way for forecasting the effectiveness of future interventions.Analysing over 50,000 government interventions in more than 200 countries, Haug et al. find that combinations of softer measures, such as risk communication or those increasing healthcare capacity, can be almost as effective as disruptive lockdowns.