Markov Processes for the Prediction of Aircraft Noise Effects on Sleep
Markov Processes for the Prediction of Aircraft Noise Effects on Sleep
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DOI：
10.1177/0272989x09342751
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发表时间：
2010-03-01
影响因子：
3.6
通讯作者：
Siebert, Uwe
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Basner, Mathias;Siebert, Uwe
背景飞机噪音干扰睡眠和损害恢复。当局计划扩建法兰克福机场。Objective.定量评估法兰克福机场交通宵禁（晚上11点至凌晨5点）对睡眠结构的影响。设计实验性睡眠研究;连续13个晚上的多导睡眠图。设置.睡眠实验室科目128例健康受试者，平均年龄（SD）38（13）岁，范围19 - 65岁，59%为女性。干预通过扬声器暴露于飞机噪音。测量.使用6状态马尔可夫状态转换睡眠模型，通过一阶蒙特卡罗模拟来模拟3种噪声场景：1）2005年法兰克福机场的交通，2）作为模拟1，但是11 PM和5 AM之间的航班被取消，以及3）作为模拟2，其中来自模拟1的11 PM和5 AM之间的航班被重新安排到11 PM之前和5 AM之后的时段。用自回归多项式逻辑回归估计睡眠阶段之间转换的概率。结果与没有宵禁的夜晚相比，模型表明宵禁的夜晚睡眠结构略有改善，即使所有的交通都重新安排到宵禁之前和之后的时间段。对于那些在晚上10：30之前或凌晨1点之后上床睡觉的人来说，这一好处可能会被傍晚和清晨空中交通量的预期增加所抵消。局限性。由于实验室设置和受试者样本，生态学有效性有限。结论.根据决策分析，法兰克福机场拟议的宵禁不太可能对睡眠结构有实质性的好处。该模型的扩展可用于评估或提出法兰克福机场的替代空中交通管制策略。
Background. Aircraft noise disturbs sleep and impairs recuperation. Authorities plan to expand Frankfurt airport. Objective. To quantitatively assess the effects of a traffic curfew (11 PM to 5 AM) at Frankfurt Airport on sleep structure. Design. Experimental sleep study; polysomnography for 13 consecutive nights. Setting. Sleep laboratory. Subjects. 128 healthy subjects, mean age (SD) 38 (13) years, range 19 to 65, 59% female. Intervention. Exposure to aircraft noise via loudspeakers. Measurements. A 6-state Markov state transition sleep model was used to simulate 3 noise scenarios with first-order Monte Carlo simulations: 1) 2005 traffic at Frankfurt Airport, 2) as simulation 1 but flights between 11 PM and 5 AM cancelled, and 3) as simulation 2, with flights between 11 PM and 5 AM from simulation 1 rescheduled to periods before 11 PM and after 5 AM. Probabilities for transitions between sleep stages were estimated with autoregressive multinomial logistic regression. Results. Compared to a night without curfew, models indicate small improvements in sleep structure in nights with curfew, even if all traffic is rescheduled to periods before and after the curfew period. For those who go to bed before 10: 30 PM or after 1 AM, this benefit is likely to be offset by the expected increase of air traffic during late evening and early morning hours. Limitations. Limited ecologic validity due to laboratory setting and subject sample. Conclusions. According to the decision analysis, it is unlikely that the proposed curfew at Frankfurt Airport substantially benefits sleep structure. Extensions of the model could be used to evaluate or propose alternative air traffic regulation strategies for Frankfurt Airport.