Measuring the Labor Market at the Onset of the COVID-19 Crisis
Measuring the Labor Market at the Onset of the COVID-19 Crisis
复制标题
DOI：
10.1353/eca.2020.0010
复制
发表时间：
2020-06-01
影响因子：
5.9
通讯作者：
Unrath, Matthew
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bartik, Alexander W.;Bertrand, Marianne;Unrath, Matthew
我们使用传统和非传统数据来衡量3月至7月初美国劳动力市场的崩溃和部分复苏，将这次衰退与之前的衰退进行对比，并提供有关政策反应效果的初步证据。对于小型和大型企业的小时工来说，几乎所有的就业下降都发生在3月14日至28日之间。这是由低工资的服务业推动的，尤其是零售、休闲和酒店业。大部分失业的小企业反映了那些完全关闭的公司，尽管许多公司随后重新开业。那些已经不健康的公司更有可能关闭而不太可能重新开业，而处于不利地位的工人更有可能被解雇而不太可能重返工作岗位。大多数被解雇的工人期望被召回，这预示着重新雇用。就地避难的订单只造成了一小部分失业。最后，从薪水保护计划中获得更多小企业贷款的州和失业保险福利更慷慨的州，衰退幅度较小，复苏速度更快。我们没有发现证据表明高失业保险替代率导致了失业或减缓了再就业。
We use traditional and nontraditional data to measure the collapse and partial recovery of the US labor market from March to early July, contrast this downturn to previous recessions, and provide preliminary evidence on the effects of the policy response. For hourly workers at both small and large businesses, nearly all of the decline in employment occurred between March 14 and 28. It was driven by low-wage services, particularly the retail and leisure and hospitality sectors. A large share of the job losses in small businesses reflected firms that closed entirely, though many subsequently reopened. Firms that were already unhealthy were more likely to close and less likely to reopen, and disadvantaged workers were more likely to be laid off and less likely to return. Most laid-off workers expected to be recalled, and this was predictive of rehiring. Shelter-in-place orders drove only a small share of job losses. Last, states that received more small business loans from the Paycheck Protection Program and states with more generous unemployment insurance benefits had milder declines and faster recoveries. We find no evidence that high unemployment insurance replacement rates drove job losses or slowed rehiring.