Reference-Point Formation and Updating
Reference-Point Formation and Updating
复制标题
DOI：
10.1287/mnsc.1100.1286
复制
发表时间：
2011-03-01
影响因子：
5.4
通讯作者：
Welfens, Frank
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Baucells, Manel;Weber, Martin;Welfens, Frank
在决策科学，实验经济学，行为融资和营销中，依赖参考的偏好已被广泛接受。但是，我们仍然对决策者如何形成和更新其参考点的信息知之甚少。我们的论文在财务环境中提供了一些新颖的实验，以提高对参考点形成的理解。我们受试者的参考价格最好被描述为时间序列的第一个和最后一个价格的结合，中级价格的体重较小且非账面。因此，参考价格不是递归的。我们提供了一个简约的公式来预测参考点，我们测试了样本外。模型的拟合度相当不错。
Reference-dependent preferences have been well accepted in decision sciences, experimental economics, behavioral finance, and marketing. However, we still know very little about how decision makers form and update their reference points given a sequence of information. Our paper provides some novel experiments in a financial context to advance the understanding of reference-point formation over time. Our subjects' reference price is best described as a combination of the first and the last price of the time series, with intermediate prices receiving smaller and nondecaying weights. Hence, reference prices are not recursive. We provide a parsimonious formula to predict the reference points, which we test out-of-sample. The fit of the model is reasonably good.