Modelling and predicting temporal frequency of foot-and-mouth disease cases in countries with endemic foot-and-mouth disease
Modelling and predicting temporal frequency of foot-and-mouth disease cases in countries with endemic foot-and-mouth disease
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1467-985x.2011.01004.x
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发表时间：
2012-01-01
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
Thurmond, Mark C.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Choi, Young Ku;Johnson, Wesley O.;Thurmond, Mark C.
.口蹄疫（FMD）是一种高度传染性的病毒性疾病，影响各种偶蹄动物。它传播迅速，给发生该病的地区的农业造成相当大的经济损失。本研究的主要目的是开发统计模型，合理预测流行地区或国家的FMD病例数，并在零星流行阶段（FMD计数超过背景流行情况）下表现良好。我们使用来自伊朗的FMD数据来开发相关数据模型，用于预测未来FMD病例的数量，并评估FMD频率增加的风险因素的统计重要性。利用离差信息准则和平均绝对预测误差进行模型选择和验证。
. Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious viral disease that affects a variety of cloven-hoofed animals. It spreads rapidly and results in considerable economic loss for agriculture in regions where the disease occurs. The main objective of this study is to develop statistical models that will reasonably predict temporal FMD case counts in endemic regions or countries, and which will also perform well under sporadic epidemic phases that increase FMD counts beyond background endemic circumstances. We used FMD data from Iran to develop correlated data models for predicting the number of FMD cases at future times and to assess the statistical importance of risk factors for increased frequency of FMD. Model selection and validation are accomplished by using the deviance information criterion and the mean absolute prediction error.