How Do We Improve Crop Production in a Warming World?
How Do We Improve Crop Production in a Warming World?
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DOI：
10.1104/pp.110.161349
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发表时间：
2010-10-01
期刊：
影响因子：
7.4
通讯作者：
Ort, Donald R.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ainsworth, Elizabeth A.;Ort, Donald R.
未来农业生产将面临全球气候变化的多方面挑战。二氧化碳和其他温室气体正以前所未有的速度在大气中累积，导致辐射强迫增加(Le Quéréet al.，2009；Shindell et al.，2009)。根据政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)A1B情景(Christensen等人，2007年)，到2080年至2099年，温室气体的持续排放将使世界重要农作物种植区的年气温上升2.5摄氏度至4.3摄氏度。生长季节的气温预计将比年平均气温更高，一些地区的降雨量预计会减少，同时气温会上升。此外，预计热浪将在频率、强度和持续时间上增加(Tebaldi等人，2006年；Christensen等人，2007年)，热带和亚热带的世纪末生长季温度甚至可能超过迄今测量的最极端季节性温度(Battisti和Naylor2009)。尽管对全球气温上升和极端温度事件做出了这些戏剧性的预测，但政府间气候变化专门委员会的最新评估报告预测，农业的适应将导致中高纬度地区谷类作物(玉米、小麦和水稻)产量增加，气温在一系列二氧化碳浓度和降水变化范围内略有上升(Easterling等人，2007年)。随着气温升高1摄氏度至3摄氏度，低纬度地区的产量预计将减少，尽管全球粮食产量预计将增加(Easterling等人，2007年)。政府间气候变化专门委员会的预测假设20世纪后半叶的产量提高将持续到未来；然而，基于历史温度与作物产量的关系、作物产量的潜在上限以及农业用地扩展的限制，这一假设可能并不可靠(Long和Ort，2010)。事实上，所有主要谷类作物的相对增产速度已经在下降(Fischer和Edmeade，2010年)。
Future agricultural production will encounter multifaceted challenges from global climate change. Carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases are accumulating in the atmosphere at unprecedented rates, causing increased radiative forcing (Le Quéré et al., 2009; Shindell et al., 2009). Continued emissions of greenhouse gases will increase annual temperatures by 2.5 C to 4.3 C in important crop-growing regions of the world by 2080 to 2099, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B scenario (Christensen et al., 2007). Growing season temperatures are expected to warm more than the annual averages, with reduced precipitation expected to accompany higher temperatures in some regions. Additionally, heat waves are expected to increase in frequency, intensity, and duration (Tebaldi et al., 2006; Christensen et al., 2007), and end-of-century growing season temperatures in the tropics and subtropics may exceed even the most extreme seasonal temperatures measured to date (Battisti and Naylor, 2009). Despite these dramatic predictions for rising global temperatures and extreme temperature events, the latest IPCC assessment report predicts that adaptation of agriculture will result in increased yields of cereal crops (maize [Zea mays], wheat [Triticum spp.], and rice [Oryza sativa]) in mid-to high-latitude regions with modest increases in temperature across a range of CO2 concentrations and precipitation changes (Easterling et al., 2007). With warming temperatures of 1 C to 3 C, yields at lower latitudes are predicted to decrease, although global food production is predicted to increase (Easterling et al., 2007). The IPCC projections assume that yield improvements from the latter half of the 20th century will continue into the future; however, based on historical temperature-crop yield relationships, potential ceilings to crop yields, and limitations to expansion of agricultural lands, that assumption may not be sound (Long and Ort, 2010). In fact, the relative rates of yield increase for all of the major cereal crops are already declining (Fischer and Edmeades, 2010).