Avian influenza, domestic ducks and rice agriculture in Thailand
Avian influenza, domestic ducks and rice agriculture in Thailand
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DOI：
10.1016/j.agee.2006.09.001
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发表时间：
2007-03-01
影响因子：
6.6
通讯作者：
Slingenbergh, Jan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gilbert, Marius;Xiao, Xiangming;Slingenbergh, Jan
由H5 N1病毒引起的高致病性禽流感（HPAI）已成为全球性的问题，它首先出现在中国南方，并从那里传播到东南亚和东亚的其他国家，在那里它于2003年底首次被证实。在以前的工作中，地理空间分析表明，自由放牧鸭在2004/2005年冬季在泰国的疾病流行病学中发挥了关键作用，无论是在高致病性禽流感的出现和传播。本研究探讨了自由放牧鸭普查计数和目前的统计数据在泰国的水稻作物的空间分布，特别是水稻生产的作物日历之间的地理关联。分析是利用地区一级的水稻统计数据和水稻分布数据进行预测，借助遥感，使用水稻检测算法。结果表明，自由放牧鸭的数量和第二季水稻收获的月份数之间存在着很强的关联，以及与遥感预测的水稻种植强度之间的关联。这些结果证实，自由放牧养鸭业是强烈驱动的农业土地利用和水稻作物种植密度，这后一个变量可以很容易地预测使用遥感。水稻种植模式的分析可能提供一个指示的位置，自由放牧鸭在其他国家的人口类似的混合鸭和水稻生产系统和不太详细的鸭普查数据。除了自由放养的鸭子和水稻种植，水文和季节性的湿地和水体中的高致病性禽流感风险分析的作用也进行了讨论，在有关的假定旱季聚集的野生水禽和水生家禽提供了很大的范围内的病毒传播。(c)2006 Elsevier B. V.保留所有权利。
Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) caused by H5N1 viruses has become a global scale problem which first emerged in southern China and from there spread to other countries in Southeast and East Asia, where it was first confirmed in end 2003. In previous work, geospatial analyses demonstrated that free grazing ducks played critical role in the epidemiology of the disease in Thailand in the winter 2004/2005, both in terms of HPAI emergence and spread. This study explored the geographic association between free grazing duck census counts and current statistics on the spatial distribution of rice crops in Thailand, in particular the crop calendar of rice production. The analysis was carried out using both district level rice statistics and rice distribution data predicted with the aid of remote sensing, using a rice-detection algorithm. The results indicated a strong association between the number of free grazing ducks and the number of months during which second-crop rice harvest takes place, as well as with the rice crop intensity as predicted by remote sensing. These results confirmed that free grazing duck husbandry was strongly driven by agricultural land use and rice crop intensity, and that this later variable can be readily predicted using remote sensing. Analysis of rice cropping patterns may provide an indication of the location of populations of free grazing ducks in other countries with similar mixed duck and rice production systems and less detailed duck census data. Apart from free ranging ducks and rice cropping, the role of hydrology and seasonality of wetlands and water bodies in the HPAI risk analysis is also discussed in relation to the presumed dry season aggregation of wild waterfowl and aquatic poultry offering much scope for virus transmission. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.