Towards reliable extreme weather and climate event attribution
Towards reliable extreme weather and climate event attribution
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DOI：
10.1038/s41467-019-09729-2
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发表时间：
2019-04-15
影响因子：
16.6
通讯作者：
Donat, Markus G.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Bellprat, Omar;Guemas, Virginie;Donat, Markus G.
气候变化正在塑造极端高温和降雨。人类活动在多大程度上增加了高影响事件的风险，这是公众高度关注的问题，目前仍在激烈辩论中。最近的研究通过比较气候模型实验，将单一极端事件归因于气候变化，其中可以包括或人为抑制外部驱动因素的影响。然而，这些结果中有许多没有适当地考虑到模拟极端事件发生概率的模型误差。在这里，我们表明，利用先进的校正技术，从天气预报领域，正确的模型概率校正改变了极端事件的气候变化的归因风险。这项研究表明，需要纠正这种类型的模型误差，以提供可靠的气候变化影响的评估。
Climate change is shaping extreme heat and rain. To what degree human activity has increased the risk of high impact events is of high public concern and still heavily debated. Recent studies attributed single extreme events to climate change by comparing climate model experiments where the influence of an external driver can be included or artificially suppressed. Many of these results however did not properly account for model errors in simulating the probabilities of extreme event occurrences. Here we show, exploiting advanced correction techniques from the weather forecasting field, that correcting properly for model probabilities alters the attributable risk of extreme events to climate change. This study illustrates the need to correct for this type of model error in order to provide trustworthy assessments of climate change impacts.