Salmon farming vulnerability to climate change in southern Chile: understanding the biophysical, socioeconomic and governance links
Salmon farming vulnerability to climate change in southern Chile: understanding the biophysical, socioeconomic and governance links
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DOI：
10.1111/raq.12336
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发表时间：
2019-05-01
影响因子：
10.4
通讯作者：
Garreaud, Rene
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Soto, Doris;Leon-Munoz, Jorge;Garreaud, Rene
在这里，我们描述了气候变化脆弱性的评估，在智利南部的鲑鱼养殖部门使用的模型，结合半定量的措施暴露（风险），敏感性（经济和社会依赖）和适应能力（措施，防止和减轻影响）。评估在八个代表鲑鱼生产（海洋生长）的试点社区进行。根据海洋学、气象学和水文学信息、死因数据库，并通过与专家和相关利益攸关方的广泛磋商，使用半定量风险评估工具对接触进行了估计。威胁包括水温和盐度的相关变化、溶解氧的下降、有害生物的出现以及可能与气候变化有关的疾病。根据我们对数据的分析，我们将养殖区划分为四个具有独特海洋学特性的子区域，并叠加了海面变暖趋势和死亡率的空间格局。降水减少以及空气和海洋表面温度升高是最相关的可预见气候变化驱动因素，特别是对第十和第十一区域而言。由此产生的脆弱性矩阵表明，生产集中度较高的社区受到的影响更大，在某些情况下，这与较高的敏感性和较低的适应能力相吻合。我们的模型的四个管理方案，使我们能够探索与鲑鱼生产向南运动的脆弱性的变化对马加拉内斯地区。通过确定新的协议，以空间明确的方式增加适应和减少脆弱性，我们提供了旨在增加气候变化适应和该部门长期可持续性的政策建议。
Here, we describe an assessment of climate-change vulnerability for the salmon farming sector in southern Chile using a model that combines semi-quantitative measures of Exposure (risks), Sensitivity (economic and social dependence) and Adaptation Capacity (measures that prevent and mitigate impacts). The evaluation was carried out in eight pilot communes representative of salmon production (marine grow-out). Exposure was estimated with a semi-quantitative risk assessment tool based on oceanographic, meteorological and hydrological information, mortality-by-cause databases, and through extended consultation with experts and relevant stakeholders. Threats included relevant changes in water temperature and salinity, declines in dissolved oxygen, occurrence of HABs, and diseases that could be associated with climate change. Based on our analysis of the data, we divided the farming regions into four sub-regions with distinctive oceanographic properties and superimposed the sea surface warming trend and a spatial pattern of mortality by respective cause. Reduction of precipitation and the increase of air and sea surface temperature are the most relevant foreseen climate change drivers, especially for regions X and XI. The resulting vulnerability matrix indicated that communes with higher production concentrations were more exposed, which in some cases coincided with higher sensitivity and lower adaptation capacity. Our models of four management scenarios allowed us to explore the changes in vulnerability associated with a southward movement of salmon production towards the Magallanes region. By identifying new protocols to increase adaptation and reduce vulnerability in a spatially explicit fashion, we provide policy recommendations aimed at increasing climate change adaptation and the long-term sustainability of the sector.