Temperature is a key driver of a wildlife epidemic and future warming will increase impacts
Temperature is a key driver of a wildlife epidemic and future warming will increase impacts
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温度是野生动物流行的关键驱动因素，未来变暖将加剧影响
DOI：
10.1101/272369
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发表时间：
2018
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Price S
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Price S
预计环境温度的上升将对生物多样性产生日益严重和有害的影响。在大多数情况下，变暖的环境的影响被认为是直接的，但有些人预测，越来越严重的疾病流行病，主要来自病媒传播的病原体，这将有能力耗尽宿主人口。缺乏支持这一假设的数据。在这里，我们描述了越来越严重的Ranavirosis驱动的温度升高影响广泛分布的两栖类主机。两者的体外和体内实验表明，环境温度的升高导致蛙病毒的繁殖增加，在后者中，宿主感染的发病率和死亡率增加。此外，温度被证明是野生两栖动物疾病动态的一个关键决定因素，提高了疾病事件的几率和严重程度。这种影响的方向是高度一致的背景下，其他相互作用的变量，如阴影周围的池塘。基于未来气候的预测表明，英国季节性天气的变化将导致两栖动物种群中严重的蛙病毒病发病率增加，这可能会影响招募。这些互补的证据清楚地说明了环境对宿主-病原体相互作用的直接调节作用，并为提出缓解行动提供了信息。
Increasing environmental temperatures are predicted to have increasingly severe and deleterious effects on biodiversity. For the most part, the impacts of a warming environment are presumed to be direct, however some predict increasingly severe disease epidemics, primarily from vector-borne pathogens, that will have the capacity to deplete host populations. Data to support this hypothesis are lacking. Here we describe increasing severity of ranavirosis driven by increasing temperature affecting a widely distributed amphibian host. Bothin vitroandin vivoexperiments showed that increasing environmental temperature leads to increased propagation of ranavirus and, in the latter, increased incidence of host infection and mortality. Also, temperature was shown to be a key determinant of disease dynamics in wild amphibians, raising the odds and severity of disease incidents. The direction of this effect was highly consistent in the context of other interacting variables such as shading around ponds. Projections based on future climate indicate that changes in seasonal weather in the UK will result in the increased incidence of severe cases of ranavirosis in amphibian populations that could affect recruitment. These complementary lines of evidence present a clear case of direct environmental modulation of a host-pathogen interaction and provide information for proposing mitigation actions.