Transportation and Supply Chain Resilience in the United Republic of Tanzania
Transportation and Supply Chain Resilience in the United Republic of Tanzania
复制标题
坦桑尼亚联合共和国的运输和供应链弹性
DOI：
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发表时间：
2019
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
J. Rozenberg
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
C. Colon;S. Hallegatte;J. Rozenberg
坦桑尼亚联合共和国的经济正在快速增长，但仍然容易受到灾害的影响，这些灾害可能会随着气候变化而恶化。它的交通系统主要由道路组成，经常因洪水而中断。怎样才能提高交通基础设施的弹性？我们制定了一种新型模型，称为DisruptSCT，它汇集了两种不同方法的优势：网络临界性分析和输入输出模型。利用各种数据，我们在空间上分解了生产、消费和投入产出关系。将这些缩小的数据插入一个基于主体的动态模型中，使我们能够模拟交通基础设施的中断，它们对企业的直接影响，以及这些影响如何沿着供应链传播并导致家庭损失。这些间接损失通常影响那些没有直接受到灾害影响的人。其强度随初始破坏时间的延长呈非线性增加。供应链产生了相互依赖，这加大了对非初级产品（如加工食品和制造业产品）的干扰。我们识别网络中的瓶颈。但它们的重要性取决于我们所关注的供应链。例如，国际买家表示，一些基础设施对一些代理商至关重要，但对其他代理商用处不大。投资优先事项因政策目标而异，例如，支持保健服务、改善粮食安全、促进贸易竞争力。增强复原力战略可以通过提高目标基础设施的质量、开发替代走廊、建设加速灾后恢复的能力，在交通运输的供应端发挥作用。另一方面，政策也可以支持供应链内的应对机制，如采购和库存策略。我们的研究结果有助于阐明这些不同的政策，并使其适应特定的环境。
The economy of the United Republic of Tanzania is growing fast but remains vulnerable to disasters, which are likely to worsen with climate change. Its transportation system, which mainly consist of roads, often get disrupted by floods. How could the resilience of the transportation infrastructures be improved? We formulate a new type of model, called DisruptSCT, which brings together the strength of two different approaches: network criticality analyses and input–output models. Using a variety of data, we spatially disaggregate production, consumption, and input–output relationships. Plugged into a dynamic agent-based model, these downscaled data allow us to simulate the disruption of transportation infrastructures, their direct impacts on firms, and how these impacts propagate along supply chains and lead to losses to households. These indirect losses generally affect people that are not directly hit by disasters. Their intensity nonlinearly increases with the duration of the initial disruption. Supply chains generate interdependencies that amplify disruptions for nonprimary products, such as processed food and manufacturing products. We identify bottlenecks in the network. But their criticality depends on the supply chain we are looking at. For instance, some infrastructures are critical to some agents, say international buyers, but of little use to others. Investment priorities vary with policy objectives, e.g., support health services, improve food security, promote trade competitiveness. Resilience-enhancing strategies can act on the supply side of transportation, by improving the quality of targeted infrastructure, developing alternative corridors, building capacity to accelerate post-disaster recovery. On the other hand, policies could also support coping mechanisms within supply chains, such as sourcing and inventory strategies. Our results help articulate these different policies and adapt them to specific contexts.