Probabilistic Benefit-Cost Analysis for Earthquake Damage Mitigation: Evaluating Measures for Apartment Houses in Turkey
Probabilistic Benefit-Cost Analysis for Earthquake Damage Mitigation: Evaluating Measures for Apartment Houses in Turkey
复制标题
减轻地震损失的概率效益成本分析：评估土耳其公寓的措施
DOI：
10.1193/1.1649937
复制
发表时间：
2004
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
Ö. Yüzügüllü
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
A. Smyth;G. Altay;G. Deodatis;M. Erdik;G. Franco;P. Gülkan;H. Kunreuther;H. Lus;E. Mete;N. Seeber;Ö. Yüzügüllü
1999年土耳其发生地震破坏后，迫切需要评估可采取的减少损失措施的效益，以加强现有住房存量。在这项研究中，引入了效益-成本分析方法，对伊斯坦布尔一栋具有代表性的公寓楼采用的几种抗震加固措施进行了比较评估。通过建立结构在不同改型下的脆性曲线，对结构进行了概率分析。通过纳入该地区的概率地震风险，可以估计任意时间段的预期直接损失。通过建立改造方案的实际成本估算和直接损失成本，就可以估算各种改造措施的净现值。这项工作的分析表明，即使只考虑直接损失，所考虑的所有改造措施都是可取的，但最短的时间范围除外。这一结论适用于关于缓解成本、贴现率、死亡人数和人命成本的广泛估计。通过纳入更多的结构类型、土壤类型、加固措施、更精确的与空间和时间相关的地震风险估计等，这里为单个建筑制定的一般方法可以扩展到整个区域。希望这项工作可以作为更现实和系统的地震减灾效益-成本分析的基准。
In the wake of the 1999 earthquake destruction in Turkey, the urgent need has arisen to evaluate the benefits of loss mitigation measures that could be undertaken to strengthen the existing housing stock. In this study, a benefit-cost analysis methodology is introduced for the comparative evaluation of several seismic retrofitting measures applied to a representative apartment building located in Istanbul. The analysis is performed probabilistically through the development of fragility curves of the structure in its different retrofitted configurations. By incorporating the probabilistic seismic hazard for the region, expected direct losses can be estimated for arbitrary time horizons. By establishing realistic cost estimates of the retrofitting schemes and costs of direct losses, one can then estimate the net present value of the various retrofitting measures. The analysis in this work implies that, even when considering only direct losses, all of the retrofitting measures considered are desirable for all but the very shortest time horizons. This conclusion is valid for a wide range of estimates regarding costs of mitigation, discount rates, number of fatalities, and cost of human life. The general methodology developed here for a single building can be extended to an entire region by incorporating additional structural types, soil types, retrofitting measures, more precise space- and time-dependent seismic hazard estimates, etc. It is hoped that this work can serve as a benchmark for more realistic and systematic benefit-cost analyses for earthquake damage mitigation.