Recent Enhanced Seasonal Temperature Contrast in Japan from Large Ensemble High-Resolution Climate Simulations
Recent Enhanced Seasonal Temperature Contrast in Japan from Large Ensemble High-Resolution Climate Simulations
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DOI：
10.3390/atmos8030057
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发表时间：
2017-03
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Y. Imada;S. Maeda;M. Watanabe;H. Shiogama;R. Mizuta;M. Ishii;M. Kimoto
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Y. Imada;S. Maeda;M. Watanabe;H. Shiogama;R. Mizuta;M. Ishii;M. Kimoto
自20世纪90年代末以来，日本的陆地表面温度在夏季和秋季有所上升，而全球平均温度在这段时间内没有上升（即，全球变暖的影响）。相比之下，日本的冬季和春季气温有所下降。为了评估全球变暖和全球尺度年代际变率对这种增强的季节温度对比的影响，我们分析了使用高分辨率大气环流模式（AGCM）进行的历史和反事实非变暖气候模拟的100个集合模拟的输出。我们的模拟结果表明，大气场的影响与年代际太平洋涛动（IPO）的拉尼娜的条件下，主要贡献了日本的季节性温度对比。与负IPO的影响相比，全球变暖对日本季节温度差异的影响较小。此外，大气变化也对日本的气温产生了巨大的影响。这项研究的结果表明，未来增加热浪的风险在夏季和秋季时，拉尼娜样的十年期现象和大气扰动相吻合的背景下，全球变暖。
Since the late 1990s, land surface temperatures over Japan have increased during the summer and autumn, while global mean temperatures have not risen in this duration (i.e., the global warming hiatus). In contrast, winter and spring temperatures in Japan have decreased. To assess the impact of both global warming and global-scale decadal variability on this enhanced seasonal temperature contrast, we analyzed the outputs of 100 ensemble simulations of historical and counterfactual non-warming climate simulations conducted using a high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM). Our simulations showed that atmospheric fields impacted by the La Nina-like conditions associated with Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) have predominantly contributed to the seasonal temperature contrast over Japan. Compared with the impact of negative IPO, the influence of global warming on seasonal temperature contrasts in Japan was small. In addition, atmospheric variability has also had a large impact on temperatures in Japan over a decadal timescale. The results of this study suggest a future increase in heatwave risk during the summer and autumn when La Nina-like decadal phenomena and atmospheric perturbations coincide over a background of global warming.