Asymmetries in the Revenue-Expenditure Nexus: A Tale of Three Countries
Asymmetries in the Revenue-Expenditure Nexus: A Tale of Three Countries
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收入与支出关系的不对称：三个国家的故事
DOI：
10.1016/j.econmod.2012.09.022
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发表时间：
2013
影响因子：
4.7
通讯作者：
Suzanna‐Maria Paleologou
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Suzanna‐Maria Paleologou
本文的目的是在所谓的软预算约束和硬预算约束战略的背景下，研究政府收入和支出的关系。本文采用了一个包含结构突变的非线性分析框架，并在三个国家进行了实证分析。其中两个代表了欧盟政治的两个极端：瑞典和希腊，第三个，德国用于比较。我们的研究结果表明，没有任何不对称，TAR或MTAR，瑞典和德国。对称ECM为两国财政收支同步假说提供了支持。然而，对于希腊，我们发现证据的MTAR形式的不对称，这反过来又支持支出和税收的假设，对长期均衡的不对称调整。这表明，希腊财政当局只有在赤字超过一个较高的“触发”门槛时才会削减赤字，这为软预算约束战略赢得政治支持提供了支持。财政调整是通过削减政府开支来进行的。样本外的预测结果表明，从单变量模型规格的多变量模型的转变，提高了轻微的预测性能。
The objective of this paper is to examine the government revenue and expenditure relationship in the context of what is known as the soft and hard budget constraint strategy. We adopt a nonlinear framework with structural breaks and focus our empirical analysis in three countries. Two of them represent the two extremes of polities in the EU: Sweden and Greece and the third, Germany is used for comparison purposes. Our results indicate absence of any asymmetries, TAR or MTAR, for Sweden and Germany. The symmetric ECM provides support for the fiscal synchronization hypothesis of revenues and expenditures in both countries. For Greece, however, we find evidence for asymmetries of the MTAR form, which in turn support the spend-and-tax hypothesis with asymmetric adjustment towards the long-run equilibrium. This indicates that the Greek fiscal authorities would cut deficits only if they exceeded a high “trigger” threshold, which gives support to the soft budget constraint strategy to gain political support. The fiscal adjustment takes place by cutting government expenditure. The out-of-sample forecast results suggest that a shift from a univariate model specification to a multivariate model improves marginally the forecast performance.
影响因子：
6.1
作者：
PERRON, P
通讯作者：
PERRON, P